Nolan Arenado to the Mets? Okay By Me!

By Curt Alliaume

 

CBS Sports, Bleacher Report, Sports Illustrated, and a few other outlets are reporting the Colorado Rockies “want to engage” the New York Mets in trade talks for their All-Star third baseman, Nolan Arenado.

I don’t know what “want to engage” really means in this context. I’m guessing it’s somebody in the Rockies’ front office spreading the word that, “Hey, we’re going to lose this guy in a year no matter what, so let’s see if we can get anything for him.” Arenado has six years left on a ten-year contract that will pay him $35 million each of the next four years (and slightly less thereafter); he also has a player opt-out clause that would allow him to leave after next season. Given Arenado has made no secret about how lousy a job the Rockies’ front office has done developing good players and bringing in guys to compete, he’s likely to use that clause (unless it’s obvious he won’t get anywhere near the deal he has now). They made the playoffs in 2017 and 2018, but haven’t come close the last two years, and that’s with a pretty good manager (Bud Black) at the helm.

Arenado’s a star. First of all, he’s won eight consecutive Gold Gloves. Last year was his first year since 2014 he put up an OPS of less than .898 or played in less than 95 percent of the team’s games. (He got off to a slow start after the season started in July, hit near his career norms in August, and then got shut down in September with a shoulder injury, which was only the second time he’s gone to the IL in his career.) And he obviously wants to win.

And he’s not old. He’s 29 now; he’ll be 30 a couple of weeks after the season starts.

I don’t know what the Rockies will want in exchange for Arenado (Brodie Van Wagenen basically strip-mined the Mets’ farm system, so they don’t have a ton to offer), but it’s possible the Rocks may take something low in order to get out from under his contract. And if the Mets can get Arenado to waive his opt-out clause, it could be a pretty sweet deal. I wonder if they’d be willing to offer some of the parts that don’t currently fit (Amed Rosario? J.D. Davis? Possibly either Dominic Smith or Pete Alonso, assuming the DH isn’t coming back to the NL this year?) to get ahold of Arenado.

Arenado has 39.1 WAR in his eight seasons in the majors—by comparison, David Wright was eight months younger after his first eight big league seasons, and had 34.4 WAR. (Wright might have been a slightly better hitter, but he was not close to Arenado as a fielder.)

If I’m in the Mets front office, I’ve got to consider this.

 

 

What's Going to Happen to Kyle Schwarber?

By Curt Alliaume

There were a few eyebrows raised here this week when Chicago Cubs outfielder Kyle Schwarber wasn’t offered arbitration, making him a free agent. And I can understand where those fans are coming from—Schwarber was a part of the 2016 World Series-winning team (albeit a very small part; he missed all but two games during the regular season due to an ACL tear, but made it back for the World Series and had a .912 OPS strictly as a DH and pinch hitter). Schwarber can hit—he hit 126 home runs for the Cubs over the last six years, with an .816 OPS overall.
 
The Cubs, however, were probably looking at three factors:
1) Schwarber would have gotten a raise from his $7 million salary in 2020, a year in which he hit .188/.308/.393. (I’m not an advocate of basing decisions like this strictly on 2020 statistics given the nature of the way the year has gone, but I’m sure it was a consideration.)
2) He struggles against left-handed pitching. A lot. His career OPS against righties is .859; against lefties it’s .650. And his struggles against lefties are because he just can’t hit them; his strikeout rate against them is 33.8 percent. That’s too much.
3) In this time when you want your players to be skilled at multiple positions, Schwarber can only play left field. (He came up as a catcher, but hasn’t caught a game since 2017.) And he’s not a good left fielder either; his six errors in 2019 led the position, and his range is below average. (He does have a very good arm.)
 
So you’ve got a guy who’s limited on defense, limited by his lack of ability against left-handed pitching, and coming off a down year. Add in that the Cubs really aren’t sure if Schwarber could DH, since the National League hasn’t made that decision yet… and you can see why they went the way they did. (Aside: if MLB wanted to give a significant advantage to American League teams during the off season, they could do no better than to tell the National League “We’re not sure how you should construct your roster because we don’t know if you’ll be able to use some of the people you sign.” It’s ridiculous this has dragged on as long as it has.)
 
One other thing: the Cubs had to decide on not just Schwarber but Kris Bryant, who was also eligible for arbitration. Bryant missed much of last year due to injury, and really wasn’t much better than Schwarber when he did play. But his ceiling is higher than Schwarber’s (he was the league’s MVP in 2016), and he’s capable at multiple positions (he may wind up moving into the left-field spot in 2021), and it would have been ironic after the Cubs bent over backward to avoid starting Bryant’s service clock in 2015, then deciding in 2020 to cut him loose a year early.
 
So where will Schwarber go? Bleacher Report ranks the options, with the White Sox coming in first, followed by Toronto and Minnesota. All of which would make sense—Schwarber is going to be a full-time designated hitter sooner or later, so he might be better off signing with an American League team now, rather than signing up with an NL team for a position that may not actually exist. And here’s something optimistic for Schwarber fans: Statcast notes his hard-hit rate has increased every year over the last five seasons (excluding his injury-shortened 2016 season). Again, I’m not sure if you want 2020 to count given the nature of what happened, but you can’t ignore the rest of it.
 
He’ll be okay. Even with Kyle Schwarber’s limitations, there will always be a need for somebody who can hit a baseball real hard.

The Free Agent Frenzy Begins: Kolten Wong

 

By Curt Alliaume

 

The St. Louis Cardinals announced yesterday they would buy out second baseman Kolten Wong’s 2021 contract. Instead of paying him $12.5 million to play for the Cardinals in 2021, they will pay him $1 million and send him on his way.

The first reaction I saw is that means there won’t be much money for free agents this season, as has been the case for the last few years. And while I don’t necessarily disagree with that point, there’s another factor at work: the Cardinals have a lot of money already invested in bad contracts, and at some point, you have to stop.

This website shows a matrix of what the team’s roster looks like, and where their money is going over the next few years. Right now, they already have over $110 million invested in seven players (and now, Wong’s buyout). Here’s where that money is going:

Paul Goldschmidt ($26.5 million) – Goldy had somewhat of a comeback last year after an off year in 2019 if you look at the basic numbers. But the jump in batting average can be attributed to a big jump in BABIP (batting average on balls in play), going from .303 to .364—a rate that usually isn’t sustainable. His power numbers actually went down (.476 slugging in 2019 vs. .466 in 2020) despite a 44-point gain in batting average—which may mean he was hitting a lot of singles and doubles. The odds are he’ll probably be somewhere between 2019 and 2020 next year, which given he’s now 33 years old, isn’t unreasonable.

Matt Carpenter ($18.5 million) – There’s not much to say here. Carpenter’s OPS numbers the last three years: .897, .726, .640. He turns 35 next month, so that number is trending in the wrong direction too. He really has to play third base at this point (he used to play second, but he’s no longer a defensive option there), and injuries and time have taken their toll. The Cardinals have to pay him $18.5 million next year no matter what; his buyout doesn’t kick in until after next season ends.

Miles Mikolas ($16.75 million) – Another contract that may turn out to be bad. Mikolas spent 2013 and 2014 in San Diego and Texas as a league-average pitcher, then pitched quite well in Japan for three seasons. He signed a two-year deal with the Cardinals for 2018 and 2019, then pitched very well in 2018 (18-4, 2.83 ERA, 1.071 WHIP), whereupon the Cardinals gave him a four-year, $68 million deal running through 2023. His output dropped in 2019 (9-14, 4.27 ERA, 1.223 ERA), partially because his contact rate went up and more balls went over the fence. And he didn’t pitch at all in 2020 due to flexor tendon surgery. Now the Cardinals probably aren’t sure what they have—and they have it for three more years and roughly $51 million.

Dexter Fowler ($16.5 million) – Another big free-agent signing the Birds probably wish they could have back. Fowler put up 6.4 WAR in two years with the Cubs from 2015 to 2016, so the Cards gave him a long-term deal at $16.5 million per year through 2021, and, well, he hasn’t lived up to it (1.9 WAR over the first four years, -0.1 in 2020). When he got to St. Louis he played center field and produced more than enough at the plate to make that work, but his range has declined (he’ll be 35 next March), so now he’s in right, and his bat no longer justifies an everyday position, but you don’t want a $16.5 million guy on the bench. The Cardinals were teeming with outfielders at one point (Tommy Pham, Randall Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty), but most of them have been dealt away for one reason or another, and none of the current crop (Fowler, Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson) produced an .800 OPS in 2020. So Fowler may be back in right to justify his salary.

Carlos Martinez ($11.5 million) – Martinez had COVID-19 this year, to the point where he had to be hospitalized, so first and foremost we want him to be safe and well. He did pitch this year (poorly), and hurt his back in his last start—so again, who knows what the Cards have here? It would help if they could decide whether he’s a starter or reliever and stick to it—he pitched primarily in relief for his first two seasons, then was a pretty effective starter from 2015 to 2018. Injuries and a glut of starters sent him to the bullpen in 2019, where he became a pretty good closer (24 saves, 3.17 ERA, 1.179 WHIP), but the Cards put him in the starting rotation once they got going this year, and he was diagnosed with COVID-19 after his first start, winding up with a 9.90 ERA. So let’s throw out this year, but what are they going to do with him? Fansided suggests trading him for Andrew Benintendi, which doesn’t sound realistic to me; Benintendi is three years younger and makes a little over half as much. I think the Cards have to go into spring training with a plan: he’s going to be a starter, or he’s going to be a closer, and stick with it.

In addition, the Cardinals renewed Andrew Miller’s contract ($12 million), have Paul DeJong signed through 2023 ($4 million), and have Kwang Hyung Kim signed through 20201 ($4 million)—but the big money (almost $90 million) is tied up five seriously questionable players whose WAR contributions the last three years have gone as follows:
2018 – 16.1 WAR (Goldschmidt was with the Diamondbacks in 2018)

2019 – 7.5 WAR

2020 – 0.3 WAR

The good news is Fowler, Carpenter, and Martinez are free agents (or will have option years the team can turn down) after 2021, so that will open up some money.

And money is the reason why Wong had to go. He’s a fine defensive second baseman (won a Gold Glove in 2019, and deserves consideration this year), but offensively the team never knew what guy was going to show up—his hitting was pretty good at times, less good for others (.675 OPS in 2020). I kept hearing from fantasy experts, “This is going to be Kolten Wong’s year!” but around 2018, I finally gave up on that idea. Viva El Birdos is very disappointed by his exit, but with his inconsistent performance, and the money they’ve got tied up in other players, means paying Wong to be on what may be a very average team—weighed down by players who are making lots of money and haven’t been producing—doesn’t make sense.

He’ll land someplace, and he’ll probably make Cardinals fans upset a few times. But as a dispassionate observer, I totally get this.

25 Years and Counting: The Teams That Haven't Won a World Series in Over a Quarter Century

 

By Curt Alliaume

Congratulations to the Los Angeles Dodgers for winning their first World Series since 1988. That’s a 32-year gap, the longest the franchise has had since winning their first World Series, which didn’t come until 1955.

 

There are still many teams which have gone decades since winning a World Series—if they’ve won one at all. I thought I’d take a look at what teams have gone without a World Series win in the last 25 years, how they’ve done during that time, and what their chances are for taking one in the future.

 

Atlanta Braves

 

Last World Series Win – 1995

Record Since 1995 – 2,176-1,769 (.552 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Lots. They had a streak between 1991 and 2005 making the playoffs every year (excluding 1994, which due to the strike/lockout there were no playoffs and World Series), and made it again in 2010, 2012, 2013, and the last three years (2018-2020). They’ve only made the World Series twice during that time, however, losing to the Yankees both times.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Excellent. They had a 3-1 lead against the Dodgers in the NLCS this year before falling apart, and that was with a starting rotation held together by duct tape and prayer. They have stars like Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, and Marcell Ozuna (although Ozuna’s set to be a free agent), and Freddie Freeman is only 30. They’ll be around for a while.

 

 

Baltimore Orioles

 

Last World Series Win – 1983

Record Since 1995 – 1,821-2,125 (.461 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – 1996 and 1997 (lost the American League Championship Series both times), and 2012, 2014, and 2016.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Not great. They finished 25-35 this season, which is probably a bit better than anyone expected, but they’re still probably a year or two away in a tough division. They also have to pay Chris Davis $23 million for the next two years—Davis isn’t the only thing that’s gone wrong in the last few years, but as a guy who became an old man about five seconds after the ink dried on his contract, he’s an easy target.

 

 

Cincinnati Reds

 

Last World Series Win – 1990

Record Since 1995 – 1,887-2062 (.478 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – 2010, 2012, 2013, and 2020, and they lost every one of those series.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – I kind of doubt it. I haven’t seen any signs that the Reds’ ownership and front office are aces at what they do. They made the playoffs three times in four years from 2010 to 2013 under Dusty Baker, and decided he didn’t know what he was doing. (He was replaced by Bryan Price, who really didn’t know what he was doing.) They did make the playoffs this year, but their Pythagorean winning percentage only went from .494 to .500, they didn’t score a run in the playoffs, and it’s likely Trevor Bauer will be in a different uniform next year. That’s not a recipe to be competitive with the Dodgers and Braves.

 

 

Cleveland Indians

 

Last World Series Win – 1954

Record Since 1995 – 2,077-1,867 (.527 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – 11 total, the most recent being this year. Two World Series losses, in 1997 to the Florida Marlins and in 2016 to the Cubs.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Don’t bet the ranch on it. The Indians’ ownership tends to prefer a low payroll; they dealt Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer last year (Bauer stands a decent chance of winning the Cy Young this year), and got rid of Mike Clevinger after he and Zack Plesac broke COVID-19 protocol rules (Plesac was the more defiant and obnoxious about it, but Clevinger makes more money). Francisco Lindor might be dealt this winter, except he’s coming off a down year. This team might win a fluke World Series, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to be super competitive in the near future.

 

 

Colorado Rockies

 

Last World Series Win – none (franchise began in 1993)

Record Since 1995 – 1,862-2,088 (.471 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – 2007 (when they lost the World Series to Boston), 2009, 2017, and 2018

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Not great. They’ve had two consecutive losing seasons, and their best player, Nolan Arenado, hasn’t been happy about the lack of progress (unfortunately, he had a lousy season this year). After a couple of years where the team’s pitching had been not terrible, they’ve moved back to the worst in the league. I don’t know how to solve that problem (it’s hard to attract good pitchers as free agents there, and there hasn’t been a consistent record of success for either hard or soft tossers) short of the team throwing up its hands and putting a dome on the stadium, which I’m pretty sure they don’t want to do.

 

 

Detroit Tigers

 

Last World Series Win – 1984

Record Since 1995 – 1,800-2,142 (.457 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Five between 2006 and 2014. That includes AL pennants (and World Series losses) in 2006 and 2012.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Not in the next couple of years. The Tigers are in the middle of a massive rebuild (in fact, almost 42 percent of the 342 games under .500 from above are from the last four years) that hasn’t started bearing fruit yet. We know this can work, as it did for the Houston Astros (cough), but it’s going to take a while.

 

 

Milwaukee Brewers

 

Last World Series Win – none (franchise began in 1969 as the Seattle Pilots)

Record Since 1995 – 1,900-2,046 (.482 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – 2008, 2011, and the last three years, including three trips to the National League Championship Series.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – There’s some talent on the current team, but not on the level of Atlanta or Los Angeles. It’s really a challenge for this franchise; it’s a small market with Chicago directly to the south taking up some of their audience (and Lake Michigan to the east). They need to build up a better farm system than they’ve done so far. Christian Yelich is still in his prime, so I think they’ll contend, but it will be an uphill battle.

 

 

Minnesota Twins

 

Last World Series Win – 1991

Record Since 1995 – 1,943-2,004 (.492 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Nine since 2002, including the last two years. No pennants, one ALCS loss.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Once they overcome the mental block of winning a playoff game, it’s entirely possible. Their playoff losing streak has reached 18 games, which is embarrassing, but sooner or later they’ll overcome it. They’ve got a pretty good pitching staff and they’ll hit better than they did last year. I expect they’ll contend with Tampa Bay and the Yankees next year.

 

 

New York Mets

 

Last World Series Win – 1986

Record Since 1995 – 1,978-1,969 (.501 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – 1999, 2000, 2006, 2015, and 2016. They won the NL pennants in 2000 and 2015, although even as a Mets fan I’d say those were a little bit of a fluke.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – I don’t know. This team has been in flux for the last few years; they were managed poorly by Mickey Callaway, they’ve been run poorly by Brodie Van Wagenen, and they’ve had horrible owners in Fred and Jeff Wilpon. Assuming the sale to Steve Cohen goes through as scheduled later this week, they’ll have their best owner since Joan Payson (well, arguably Nelson Doubleday too), a huge fan of the team (Fred Wilpon famously built more monuments to the Brooklyn Dodgers at Citi Field than the Mets) with plenty of money. But the farm system is weak, and they need to be better at staying healthy and fitting all the pieces together.

 

 

Oakland Athletics

Last World Series Win – 1989

Record Since 1995 – 2,069-1,877 (.524 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – 11 appearances in all, including the last three years. No pennants and only one ALCS appearance – they lost the fifth game of the American League Division Series six times out of seven from 2000 to 2013.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Decent, maybe on a par with the Twins. This has been a well-run franchise since Billy Beane took over in the front office. One thing that has dragged it down is a decent stadium (they were the last team to share with a football team until the Oakland Raiders moved out this year; what’s left is made more for football than baseball, and while the team has looked for new locations within the Bay Area, the San Francisco Giants have veto power over most of them); it’s not crucial at the moment, but it would helpful.

 

 

Pittsburgh Pirates

Last World Series Win – 1977

Record Since 1995 – 1,791-2,151 (.454 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Three from 2013-2015; they didn’t make it past the National League Division Series in any of them.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Terrible. They had the worst record in baseball last year. They’re just starting on a rebuild that might not have been necessary had they not made that terrible Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows for Chris Archer trade two years ago (they’re probably going to decline the option on Archer’s contract; he missed all of 2020 due to arm trouble). This team has been run pretty poorly for the last 30 years, and I don’t get the sense things are going to change soon.

 

 

San Diego Padres

Last World Series Win – none (franchise began in 1969)

Record Since 1995 – 1,884-2,065 (.477 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Five, including this year (they were swept by the Dodgers in the NLDS). They won the 1998 NL pennant, but lost to the Yankees in the World Series.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Pretty decent. The Padres perpetually have had poor ownership and/or team management, but it looks like they’ve gotten themselves straightened out. (Coincidentally, their field managers during most of the last quarter century, Bruce Bochy and Bud Black, have been highly regarded and reasonably successful.) They’ve got a solid young nucleus in the field and fleeced the Brewers and Indians to pick up good starting pitchers in Zach Davies and Mike Clevinger. They may not be on the same level as the Dodgers and Braves, but they’re not far behind.

 

 

Seattle Mariners

Last World Series Win – none (franchise began in 1977)

Record Since 1995 – 1,952-1,994 (.495 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Three from 1997 to 2001 under Lou Piniella (including famously losing the ALCS to the Yankees in 2001 after setting the all-time record for wins in the regular season with 116), nothing since then.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Not great. They’ve been in a holding pattern the last few years, trading players furiously while waiting for their farm system to improve, and I haven’t noticed anything that makes me think they’re headed in a positive direction. And they’re in a tough division; it appears the A’s and Astros are far better organized and run than the Mariners.

 

 

Tampa Bay Rays

Last World Series Win – none (franchise began in 1998)

Record Since 1995 – 1,726-1,896 (.477 winning percentage). I’m going to put in a caveat: the first ten years of the franchise the team’s winning percentage was .399; since then it’s been .539.

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Six since 2008, including AL pennants in 2008 and 2020. They just lost the World Series to the Dodgers.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Great. They’re on an upswing, they’re a very well-run franchise given they aren’t in a great revenue-generating market (hint: move closer to Orlando), and they’ve got some solid pitching. No reason they shouldn’t be in contention the next few years.

 

 

Texas Rangers

Last World Series Win – none (franchise began in 1961)

Record Since 1995 – 1,991-1,958 (.504 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Eight total, including pennants in 2011 and 2012 (lost to the Cardinals and Giants in the World Series, respectively).

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Bad. They’ve been under .500 four straight seasons, they don’t hit much, and taking a chance on Corey Kluber in a trade didn’t pan out. It’s embarrassing this franchise has played for 60 seasons without a World Series title, but I don’t see that changing soon. (Do keep in mind those eight playoff appearances since 1995 are the only ones they’ve ever made; they completely whiffed in the 35 years before that.)

 

 

Toronto Blue Jays

Last World Series Win – 1993

Record Since 1995 – 1,953-1,994 (.495 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Three, after being out for two decades. They lost the ALCS in 2015 and 2016, and were shut out in the Wild Card round this year.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – All right. The good news is they have a solid group of young position players, but the bad news is their pitching staff isn’t very good. Still, the rebuild they started a few years ago is already paying dividends, and I don’t see an American League team that has the talent the Dodgers or Braves do, so why not Toronto?

 

 

Players From the Past: Shawon Dunston

By Curt Alliaume

Shawon Dunston was a pretty good baseball player who suffered from not being the superstar the Chicago Cubs and their fans expected.

Dunston was the 1^st overall draft pick in baseball in 1982 out of Thomas Jefferson High School in Brooklyn, where he’d hit .790 his senior year (that’s not a typo). The Cubs originally intended to switch him from shortstop to third base according to a story in The New York Times, but that plan apparently evaporated partway through his first year in Rookie ball.

By 1985, at age 22, he was ready for the majors, much to the displeasure of the incumbent shortstop, Larry Bowa, who was 39 years old and hit .223 with a .274 on-base percentage and .269 slugging percentage the year before, which was the lowest OPS for anyone in MLB with over 400 plate appearances. Bowa was clearly about done – the problem was Bowa, who probably has had the longest case of RA in baseball history, didn’t think so and blasted Cubs manager Jim Frey after the change was made and for years afterward. “Frey was always an offensive-oriented manager,” Bowa wrote in his book, entitled Bleep! “He really didn`t like singles. He came from Baltimore with the three-run homer. You know, the Earl Weaver thing.” That quote didn’t wear well.

Anyway, Dunston got off to a slow start, so the Cubs sent him down to Triple-A for a few months to get his bearings. Once he came back up, he was made the starting shortstop (and Bowa was released). Dunston stayed as more or less the Cubs’ regular shortstop for the next decade. But that doesn’t mean he was a great shortstop. Bill James wrote in The Baseball Book 1991 “the problem with Dunston is that he really has no offensive role. With his very low on-base percentages he can’t lead off, despite his speed and base stealing skills, which are very good. With his strikeouts you don’t want him batting second, and while he is a good hitter for a shortstop, he doesn’t hit enough to hit 3-4-5 ahead of [Andre] Dawson, [Ryne] Sandberg, [Mark] Grace, [George] Bell, et al. He’s just a very good hitter for a guy somewhere at the bottom of the order.”

James pointed out Dunston had the worst strikeout/walk ratio in the majors in 1990 among players with 400 or more plate appearances, which was basically his problem at the plate. In 1989 he’d had his best offensive season, hitting .278 with a .724 OPS, and walking 30 times in 512 plate appearances. That last number wasn’t great, but considering he’d walked 66 times in 1,817 plate appearances the previous four seasons, there was some reason to think he’d turned a corner. He hadn’t; his career walk percentage (walks divided by plate appearances) was 3.2 percent; only three players in 2019 did worse. Dunston was a pretty decent fielder with a great arm for the first few seasons, and then went steadily downhill, which is no surprise. Ozzie Guillen, playing crosstown for the White Sox, never took walks either (3.4 walk percentage), but Guillen also rarely struck out and was a far better fielder.

James ranked him fifth among National League shortstops going into 1992 – which sounds pretty decent until you look at the list. Ahead of him were Barry Larkin (who was drafted in the second round by the Reds the same year Dunston was taken first overall, but didn’t sign; Cincinnati would draft him in the first round three years later and got a Hall of Fame shortstop), Ozzie Smith, Tony Fernandez, and Jay Bell; after Dunston there was a major drop off (Kevin Elster and Bill Pecota for the Mets, Wilfredo Cordero for Montreal, etc.). Dunston signed a four-year, $12 million deal with the Cubs after the 1991 season, but injured his back in 1992 and missed most of the year, and then tried to come back too soon in 1993 and missed most of that year as well. By the time he got back in 1994, he was 31 years old and lost some speed on the bases and range in the field; the Cubs did not try to resign him after the 1995 season.

Dunston wound up making a journey through the majors after that, turning into a utility player, mostly playing in the outfield (although he went back to shortstop in a pinch). He went to the San Francisco Giants in 1996, followed by the Cubs again, the Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland, a second tour with the Giants, St. Louis, the Mets, the Cardinals again, and then Giants for a third time, playing his last game in 2002. I get the sense he was a pretty good guy in the clubhouse. His son, Shawon Jr., was drafted by the Cubs in 2011, but never made it past A ball.

Dunston’s career statistics, courtesy of Baseball Reference.

March 12, 2018 - Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers

Listening to the Washington Nationals and the Detroit Tigers play a spring training game. (Well, I was until the MLB AtBat app started having buffering issues – first time that’s happened in a long time.  As I post this, it’s now 3-3 in the bottom of the eighth – but remember in spring training the wins don’t matter.) Mets apparently are off today, as are the Cubs. I enjoy listening to Tigers games, even though the team itself is probably going to be lousy this season (they’re leading 1-0 as I write this, but mostly because they have a lot of their starters in, while the Nationals are playing nothing but reserves). Dan Dickerson is very solid at play by play (his first few years overlapped with the last few years of the legendary Ernie Harwell), and Jim Price is a longtime Tiger personality, having been a catcher for the team from 1967-1971. (He’s also 76 years old, so listen to him while you can.)

A few things I’ve learned from the broadcast:

      1) Tigers catcher John Hicks may make a difference for the team. I gather James McCann’s three-year stint as their starting catcher may be in danger, since he’s not very good at framing pitches. I don’t know about Hicks’ pitch-framing abilities, but he ended two innings in a row from behind the plate – throwing out Moises Sierra trying to steal second base in the second inning, and then picking Brian Goodwin off first base to end the third. That will get you noticed.

      2) The Nationals don’t have many openings, but fifth starter is one of them. They’re auditioning Edwin Jackson today, and I don’t think he has much of a chance.  Jackson is the very definition of the term “well-traveled” – he’s been on 12 of the 30 major league teams, and this is his second tour of duty with the Nationals. He was an average-to-above-average starting pitcher through 2011, and, in a move that Theo Epstein probably won’t mention when he writes his autobiography, was signed to a four-year, $52-million deal with the Cubs. Jackson responded by going 16-34 with a 5.37 ERA and -3.4 WAR over two and a half years, at which point the Cubs threw in the towel and ate the remainder of the contract. He wasn’t terrible today – one run on three hits and two walks in three innings – but nothing worth remembering, either. I think the Nats were hoping Jake Arrieta would take a bargain-basement deal to sign with them, but he went to the Phillies over the weekend (which might give the Phils an outside chance at a wild-card spot if everything goes right), so they’re looking at Jackson and two rookies, A.J. Cole and Erick Fedde. Cole appears to be the favorite (he was not awful in 52 innings last year), but honestly, if I were running the Nats I’d be putting a call out to Alex Cobb, who’s the only noteworthy free agent left other than reliever Greg Holland, and who would probably take a low-end deal with incentives to play for a contender. This is the last year the Nats are going to have Bryce Harper, barring something miraculous – do they really want to go with Edwin Jackson as their fifth starter?

The Remaining Free Agents

Okay, let’s take a look at the biggest MLB free agents still out there, and why they aren’t signed.

1B Eric Hosmer

Hosmer’s gotten offers – he’s got two seven-year deals on the table, from San Diego for $140 million and from Kansas City (where he’s been for seven years) for $147 million. According to USA Today, he’s trying to get a nine-year deal like Prince Fielder or an eight-year deal like Jason Heyward. This may be part of the problem: no general manager wants to give out contracts that are comparable to Prince Fielder’s (he racked up 6.9 WAR in the first six years of the deal at a cost of $142 million, then had to retire because of back issues) or Jason Heyward’s (3.9 WAR over two years with the Cubs, after 31.1 WAR in his first six seasons with Atlanta and St. Louis, at a cost of nearly $50 million for those two years – he has the right to opt out after this season, but how likely is that to happen?). Teams may be wising up to the idea that players are going downhill quicker than they were 15 years ago – the idea of an everyday player putting up the same numbers until his late 30s, except for the years 1995-2005 or so (e.g. The Steroid and Amphetamine Years) was pretty much only done by Hall of Famers. Anyway, I would think Hosmer would take one of the two offers – except his agent’s Scott Boras, who tends to be hardheaded about these things.

SP Yu Darvish

Darvish also has offers on the table, but is waiting for bigger offers from either the Yankees or Dodgers. I doubt he’ll get them (both of those teams may be saving money for Bryce Harper). Also, Darvish missed all of 2015 with Tommy John surgery, so he’s not guaranteed, and he had a lousy World Series. He could wind up with the Cubs, the Brewers, or back with Texas. Look for him to sign in the next few days.  UPDATE:  Darvish has apparently agreed to terms on a six-year deal with the Cubs for $126 million.

OF J.D. Martinez

Outfielder should be in quotes; Martinez is not a good fielder. He was looking for huge money, but he’s finished in the top 10 in WAR precisely once (10^th, in 2014). So he’s a good hitter, but he was apparently looking for seven years at $30 million a year – and that’s not going to happen to a guy who was born to DH. The Red Sox are offering $125 over five years, which is still rarified territory – he’d be among the top 15 highest-paid players, per USA Today (and I’m pretty sure the GMs for at least five of those players are now saying, “I wish I could do that one over”). But his agent is Scott Boras, so Martinez is indicating he’s not happy with the Sox’ offer – which may lead them to withdraw it (he’s not going to play the outfield with Betts, Bradley Jr., and Benintendi there, and if he DHs for the Sox, Hanley Ramirez has no place to play), in which case he’d be really screwed.

SP Jake Arrieta

This one’s easy. Arrieta’s WAR numbers the last three years: 8.7, 3.4, 1.9. Who wants to be the GM who finds out the hard way what the next number is in that sequence? USA Today is theorizing he’ll go to the Nationals, and if they pay $120 million for five years, they’ll regret it. Scott Boras is his agent, too, and Arrieta’s the most likely to sit and wait for what he wants. (Not a good plan for pitchers; Roy Oswalt did that a few years ago, and instantly became an old man when he finally signed.)

3B Mike Moustakas

Moustakas is only 29, so you’d think teams would be interested in him – but there are less openings for third basemen than one might expect. Also, he’s only had a season over 2.0 WAR twice in seven years, and, well, I can see why the Mets took Todd Frazier. I think he’ll actually get a multiyear deal – the Yankees may step up – but two issues: the Royals would get a compensatory pick from the signing team, and (stop me if you’ve heard this one) Scott Boras is his agent. (Honestly, I think teams are conspiring against Boras, not free agents.)

SP Lance Lynn, SP Alex Cobb, RP Greg Holland

I’m putting these guys in a group because they have the same issue – they all had Tommy John surgery in 2015 (Darvish had his in 2014). They all had pretty good years last year, but not spectacular. Still, I’d take Lynn (who’s a pretty solid starting pitcher) or Holland pretty quickly. (Holland’s been accused of having a bad second half, but he actually had one really bad month – August. His month-by-month ERAs: 1.50, 1.17, 1.69, 2.25, 13.50, 1.86. If his lousy month had been September I’d be more worried, but it looks like he fixed whatever the problem was.) Also, none of these guys are repped by Scott Boras. Something will get done for all three pretty soon.