2011 Cardinals Already in Trouble

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch is reporting Adam Wainwright is being examined for what may be a "significant" elbow injury.

The Cardinals already have enough trouble with Albert Pujols still unsigned beyond this season, but let's put that to the side. They finished in second last year with Pujols, Matt Holliday, Chris Carpenter, and Wainwright all reasonably healthy. If Wainwright misses a significant period of time, they'll have a hard time contending.

The Cardinals have built a team with a few legitimate superstars (see above) and a lot of role players (their double-play combo this year will be Skip Schumaker and Ryan Theriot). Losing one of the superstars for an extended length of time changes the equation; it also means, come June or July, the Cardinals might be more willing to deal Pujols to a team that can sign him for what he wants (read: Yankees) rather than keeping him and getting draft picks.

We'll see what happens.

Why I Like the Naperville Public Library

Beside the long hours they're open, the convenience of their old books at ridiculous prices -$1 for a hardcover and 50 cents for a paperback is the going rate, but sometimes they go for as cheap as a quarter or a dime.

And so, tonight, I expanded my baseball collection:

Veeck, As in Wreck (Veeck/Linn) -- The autobiography of Bill Veeck, which I've been meaning to read for years.

Mind Game: How to Boston Red Sox Got Smart, Won a World Series, and Created a New Blueprint for Winning (Baseball Prospectus/Goldman) -- The problem with some books is they wind up looking ridiculous in retrospect (and a lot of them wind up going up for sale at the library as a result). For example, I had a chance to buy Tim McCarver's book, The Perfect Season - Why 1998 Was Baseball's Greatest Year, but time has shown that year was, in fact, its most steroidal (is that a word?). This one, by the usually reliable guys at BP, should last.

Blue Skies, Green Fields: A Celebration of 50 Major League Baseball Stadiums (Rosen) -- Coffee table book (not really well designed, unfortunately) featuring great stadiums of the past and present. I haven't seen this very often, so I was happy to find it hear.

Ed Barrow: The Bulldog Who Built the Yankees' First Dynasty (Levitt) -- Published by University of Nebraska Press, which means it's a labor of love for the author. Barrow was the VP/GM of the Yankees from the 1920s through late 1940s.

Yankee for Life: My 40-Year Journey in Pinstripes (Murcer/Waggoner) -- Yeah, I can't stand the Yankees, but Murcer was a good guy, and one of the few reasons to watch the team in the early 1970s (when they featured an infield of Danny Cater, Horace Clarke, Gene Michael, and Jerry Kenney).

Built to Win: Inside Stories and Leadership Strategies From Baseball's Winningest GM (Schuerholz/Guest) -- probably not the first book I'll read, but he did build a fantastic run of Braves teams.

Total spent: five dollars.

Yes, I'm a happy man tonight.

2010 National League Catchers

Catchers are underrated – many teams settle for guys who can call a good game and have “intangibles.” But what a team really wants is a guy (or guys) who can reach an .800 OPS and can call a good game, as well as pitchers who hold runners on well.

Stats:

BA – batting average

OBP – on-base percentage

SLG – slugging average

OPS – on-base percentage + slugging average

SEC – secondary average (created by Bill James to indicate how many runs a player will produce, it’s extra bases on base hits + walks + stolen bases / at-bats + walks)

Rankings are in order of OPS.

1. Brian McCann, Atlanta (.269 BA / .375 OBP / .453 SLG / .828 OPS / .302 SEC)

Yes, the days when a catcher would be among the very best hitters in the NL are long gone. McCann’s been the best the NL has to offer the last two years, and probably will continue to do so. Warning: his power has dipped a bit. Note McCann also has the top secondary average in the league – he’s easily the best option here.

2. Carlos Ruiz/Brian Schneider, Philadelphia (.286 BA / .386 OBP / .431 SLG / .817 OPS / .256 SEC)

Give the Phillies a lot of credit here – they have a good platoon catching system at a cheap price (Ruiz and Schneider combined made a bit over 3 million last year.) The best catching prospect, Sebastian Valle, played A ball last year and both Ruiz and Schneider are signed for 2011, so don’t expect changes.

3. Ramon Hernandez / Ryan Hanigan / Corky Miller, Cincinnati (.292 BA / .369 OBP / .424 SLG / .793 OPS / .217 SEC)

This is kind of a fluke – Hernandez’s numbers were a little higher than normal, Hanigan’s a lot higher. Hanigan’s 30, so last year’s .300 average probably represented an outlier year. Miller’s a journeyman catcher. All three are back for 2011.

4. Buster Posey / Bengie Molina / Eli Whiteside, San Francisco (.281 BA / .335 OBP / .439 SLG / .773 OPS / .215 SEC)

Yeah, Buster Posey’s going to be great, but that wasn’t all him. He doesn’t take a lot of walks, which is a little worrisome. Molina’s now in Texas, and Whiteside’s not going to be a viable regular, so the Giants better hope Posey’s healthy.

5. Geovany Soto / Koyie Hill, Chicago Cubs (.253 BA / .341 OBP / .417 SLG / .759 OPS / .267 SEC)

If Soto had stayed healthier, this number would have been higher – Hill had a .552 OPS, Soto .890, which would have topped Brian McCann for #1 in the league. But Soto missed 57 games and only had a little over 400 plate appearances. Cubs have to upgrade the backup position if that continues to happen, because if they have Hill behind the plate for 50-70 games a year, they won’t win anything.

6. Miguel Montero / Chris Snyder / John Hester, Arizona Diamondbacks (.245 BA / .333 OBP / .419 SLG / .752 OPS / .270 SEC)

Montero won the job after a fine 2009 season, but struggled with injuries last year. Snyder was dealt to the Pirates midyear, so he’s out of the rotation. Hester’s around but isn’t really a factor; Henry Blanco has been signed as the backup, but he turns 40 in August, so the D-Backs are in trouble if Montero suffers a serious injury.

7. Miguel Olivo / Chris Ianetta, Colorado Rockies (.246 BA / .316 OBP / .428 SLG / .744 OPS / .268 SEC)

Ianetta was one of the top catchers in the NL in 2009, so the Rockies let platoon partner Yorvit Torrealba go in favor of Olivo. Ianetta wasn’t the same player in 2010, but Olivo stepped up a bit, so the results were fairly similar. Olivo signed with Seattle, so Ianetta needs to step it up this year.

8. Yorvit Torrealba / Nick Hundley, San Diego Padres (.261 BA / .327 OBP / .396 SLG / (.723 OPS / .223 SEC)

Surprisingly decent offensive contribution from this position. No one expected much from Hundley, and Torrealba was the lesser half of a platoon in Colorado, but they kept the position from being a problem. Torrealba signed with Texas, so Hundley will have the full-time job.

9. Russell Martin / A.J. Ellis / Rod Barajas / Brad Ausmus, Los Angeles Dodgers (.256 BA / .348 OBP / .350 SLG / .698 OPS / .208 SEC)

The Dodgers finally realized Russell Martin wasn’t worth the money they would have had to pay him and let him go (the Yankees ridiculously paid $4 million to have him be Jorge Posada’s backup/successor). Barajas will supply his usual home runs-and-nothing else, with Dioner Navarro as the backup. I thought Brad Ausmus retired, but he’s still on the roster.

10. Jonathan Lucroy / George Kotteras / Gregg Zaun, Milwaukee Brewers (.237 BA / .311 OBP / .364 SLG / .675 OPS / .219 SEC)

Zaun was supposed to be the starter, but got hurt and was gone for the year in mid-May. Lucroy wasn’t ready yet, but he established himself pretty well. Kotteras is a standard backup guy, but the Brewers have also brought in Wil Nieves from Washington, for reasons unknown.

11. Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals (.262 BA / .329 OBP / .342 SLG / .671 OPS / .172 SEC)

This is another “Tony LaRussa must know something we don’t” entry, because most teams would be looking for someone else about now, while the Cardinals are going to pay him $5 million next year. I know he’s a great defensive catcher, and last year was a bit of a dropoff for him, but that’s still an awful lot of money for not a lot of output.

12. Rod Barajas / Josh Thole / Henry Blanco, New York Mets (.241 BA / .298 OBP / .372 SLG / .670 OPS / .194 SEC)

Most of the low on-base percentage is due to Barajas taking eight walks in 249 ABs in the first half of the season. Thole put up a .723 OPS in 202 ABs in the second half, which is a good sign. However, that came down to .743 against righties and .343 against lefties (admittedly, he only faced a southpaw 30 times), so the Mets nabbed Ronny Paulino, who has an .881 career OPS against lefties. This seems a better idea than the doofus blogger who lamented not outbidding the Yankees for Russell Martin.

13. Ryan Doumit / Chris Snyder / Jason Jaramillo, Pittsburgh Pirates (.220 BA / .304 OBP / .357 SLG / .661 OPS / .220 SEC)

Another of many areas the Pirates need to fix. Doumit’s pretty decent when healthy, which isn’t often enough. Snyder was dreadful after coming over from Arizona in midseason, but he’s still likely a better option than the light-hitting Jaramillo.

14. Ronny Paulino / Brad Davis / John Baker / Brett Hayes, Florida Marlins (.238 BA / .297 OBP / .353 SLG / .650 OPS / .189 SEC)

Paulino is a little stretched as a regular, but he was better than most of the other options the Marlins have. Baker is counted on to be the starter this year, which is likely a reach. I loved Davis in Midnight Express.

15. Ivan Rodriguez / Wil Nieves, Washington Nationals (.248 BA / .279 OBP / .336 SLG / .616 OPS / .129 SEC)

Hard to believe this wasn’t the worst catching pair in the league last year. Rodriguez was once on track for the Hall of Fame, but he may be ruining his chances in his quest to play more seasons than any other catcher (this will be his 20^th). Nieves has moved on to Milwaukee, so someone else will have to back Rodriguez up.

16. Humberto Quintero / Jason Castro, Houston Astros (.222 BA / .272 OBP / .304 SLG / .577 OPS / .139 SEC)

I don’t think the Astros, in their 50 years of existence, have ever had an All-Star catcher. I know they’ve never had one who’s hit 20 homers. Anyway, Castro is now the catcher of the future, now that it’s been established J. R. Towles can’t his big league pitching (.830 OPS in AAA, .600 in the majors), unfortunately Castro was just as bad last year (.573 OPS). At least they’re not talking about bringing Brad Ausmus back.

2010 Major League Baseball Predictions

American League East

1. New York Yankees
2. Tampa Bay Rays*
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Toronto Blue Jays

Yankees are too strong to fail much, unless the injury wave from Queens moves to the Bronx. Rays had a lot of things go wrong last year; that will change (the asterisk means I think they'll win the wild card). Red Sox and Rays are probably about even, but the Sox are carrying a couple of vets they shouldn't play, but will. Orioles will be a lot better in two years.

American League Central

1. Minnesota Twins
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Cleveland Indians

If it weren't for Minnesota, every team in the Central would be hard-pressed to win 75 games. Cleveland may be especially bad; I don't see any future among the pitching staff at all.

American League West

1. Anaheim Angels who claim they're from Los Angeles
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Texas Rangers
4. Oakland Athletics

Angels appear hard to beat; the Mariners may take a half-step back this year. Texas will let Ron Washington go by June 1. A's will be a lot better if they get some bats; the pitching is young and good.

National League East
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves*
3. New York Mets
4. Florida Marlins
5. Washington Nationals

Phillies have had as much good fortune with injuries as Mets have had bad -- six of their eight position players were in 155 or more games last year (only LF Raul Ibanez and C Carlos Ruiz didn't make the cut). Braves will overachieve for Bobby Cox's last season. Mets will continue to struggle; they needed to add another starting pitcher this winter and didn't. Marlins will come up short and get rid of a lot of players because they're the cheapest team around. Nationals need two or three years to get out of the hole ex-GM Jim Bowden placed them.

National League Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Houston Astros

Cards still look like the class of the division unless Carpenter and Wainwright both go down. Cubs could take the division if everything goes right. Reds have a lot of young talent, but they're short on pitching and Dusty Baker ruins young arms anyway. Brewers will let Ken Macha go by July 1. Pirates are finally putting together a plan; they'll avoid 90 losses for the first time in years. Astros will be awful for the next five seasons.

National League West
1. Colorado Rockies
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Diego Padres

Rockies will be the best of the NL for the next few seasons. Dodgers are messed up due to their owners' divorce, and Manny Ramirez is starting to show his age. Giants need hitting, Diamondbacks need hitting, Padres need everything.

AL Champion: New York Yankees
NL Champion: Colorado Rockies

World Series Champion: Colorado Rockies

One to Root For

The Kane County Cougars, a lower-division Class A team that's part of the Oakland Athletics farm system, plays about 35 minutes from my house. We try to go to a few games a year. There are a few independent league teams closer than they are, but I don't really see the point of going to those games over the Cougars -- independent leagues, with a couple of exceptions, are primarily populated by players who are has-beens, never-will-bes, might-have-beens, weres, and jerks. You go to a Cougars game, you'll see at least a couple of guys who will be on the major league roster in a few years. (I specifically recall seeing Joe Blanton, now a starting pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies, toss a pretty good game around 2002 or 2003.)

Anyway, Danny and I were at a game last year, with the Cougars taking on the West Michigan Whitecaps, who play near Grand Rapids and are a Detroit Tiger farm team. The thing I noticed was about 10 or 12 people next to us -- cheering wildly when the opposing pitcher did anything well. This rarely happens at minor league games. I mean, it's not a criminal offense or anything at Cougar games (I can't say the same for Cub or Yankee games), but it's a surprise.

So in the second inning, I finally asked the woman next to me, "I gather you know him?" Turned out she was his aunt, the attractive young woman behind me was his girlfriend, and his mom was there too. His name was Casey Crosby, and he grew up in Sugar Grove, IL, about five or ten minutes from the park. This had to have been a great thrill for the family.

Also nerve-wracking. As his aunt explained, he'd had Tommy John surgery the year before and missed the entire season. So the Tigers were keeping him on a very, very tight pitch count. He wound up pitching only four innings (I think he gave up a couple of walks), but didn't allow any runs. And I did notice he had pretty good velocity. So I tried to remember his name.

Well, turns out he's quite a prospect. My Athlon 2010 magazine lists him as one of the top prospects in the Tigers system, as does Baseball Prospectus, which notes 1) he was dominant once he got his control back, and 2) he could be turned into a reliever to save strain on his arm (think Kerry Wood).

So remember the name. His family was very nice, and you like to see the good guys make it.

National League Player Rankings, Part One

I'm just ranking them by quantifiable OPS, rather than putting in my opinion, or factoring in fielding, and so on. This will be ongoing over the next few weeks.

1. Brian McCann, Atlanta (.834 OPS)
McCann's been at or near the top of the NL's best catchers over the last couple of years, but you haven't read a lot about him. That should change at some point – it may take a career season to do so, however.

2. Miguel Montero, Arizona (.832 OPS)
Took a significant step up last year. A little less power than McCann, but a few more singles and walks. I'd take either one of them.

3. Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia (.780 OPS)
The Phillies really need a platoon partner for Ruiz – they let Chris Coste go halfway through the season. I don't think he's capable of handling 110 games by himself without his numbers taking a hit.

4. Chris Ianetta/Yorvit Torrealba, Colorado (.773 OPS)
The Rockies have waited patiently for Ianetta to arrive, even signing Torrealba to a two-year deal after winning the 2007 pennant. The wait has paid off; Ianetta's now at about the same level as McCann or Montero, and Torrealba's a free agent. Torrealba can still hit, but he's got injury issues and threw out just 14 percent of baserunners trying to steal, worst in the NL.

5. John Baker/Ronny Paulino, Florida (.761 OPS)
Marlins dealt for Paulino last year even though Baker was coming on, but having them split the receiving duties was a good idea. Baker has more power, Paulino hits for average better.

6. Bengie Molina, San Francisco (.727 OPS)
Hit 20 homers last year, and plays good defense. That's all he does. He took 13 walks in 520 plate appearances. He's a free agent, and will shift into a platoon role unless the Giants panic and offer him arbitration.

7. Yadier Molina, St. Louis (.714 OPS)
Took 22 walks in 510 plate appearances, which was far better than his brother. Also hit .294, a career high. Good defense, doesn't hit for power.

8. Nick Hundley/Henry Blanco, San Diego (.712 OPS)
Hundley had a pretty decent first year and Blanco adds a little sock and is a good defender. Not a strength, but the Padres have a lot bigger issues than this.

9. Ryan Doumit/Jason Jaramillo, Pittsburgh (.697 OPS)
Doumit missed a lot of last year due to injury; if he plays 100 or more games, he'll rank in the top four. Jaramillo's a catch-and-throw backup.

10. Ramon Hernandez/Ryan Hanigan, Cincinnati (.696 OPS)
A couple of years ago Hernandez was among the better catchers offensively, but time and injuries have taken their toll; now he takes a lot of walks but little else. Hanigan pitched in when Hernandez was hurt in August; inexplicably the Reds resigned Hernandez for another season.

11. Russell Martin, Los Angeles (.680 OPS)
Los Angeles needs to do a major rethink here. A few years ago Martin was neck and neck with Brian McCann; now he's among the low middle catchers in the league, likely because he's playing too much (his 586 plate appearances were 38 ahead of McCann and 66 ahead of everybody else). A platoon partner might help. Brad Ausmus is not that partner.

12. Geovany Soto/Koyie Hill, Chicago (.674 OPS)
Soto was the Rookie of the Year in 2008, but he reported to camp in 2009 out of shape, played in the World Baseball Classic, and then had an awful season. Hill's a catch and throw guy who's just happy to be in The Show after some of the injuries he's had.

13. Omir Santos/Brian Schneider, New York (.665 OPS)
I don't the Mets have a clue here. They sent Ramon Castro packing early in the season while Schneider was still on the DL, leaving the catching in the hands of unproven Omir Santos. Santos had an okay year, so Schneider was allowed to leave as a free agent. Josh Thole is the catcher of the future – a poor man's Joe Mauer – but he needs about 300 AB at Triple A.

14. Chris Coste/Humberto Quintero, Houston (.638 OPS)
Coste was released by Philadelphia during the season, but latched on with Houston after they concluded J.R. Towles won't hit major league pitching. Quintero doesn't hit much, but has the best throwing arm in the league.

15. Jason Kendall, Milwaukee (.6361 OPS)
Should not be offered a starting position. Lowest slugging percentage among the NL catching group, and only avoided lowest OPS due to getting hit by 17 pitches. I read in a recent Mets blog entry they should go after Kendall, because if he hit .270 they'd be happy… but Kendall hasn't hit .270 since 2006. Also among the league's worst at throwing out baserunners.

16. Josh Bard/Wil Nieves, Washington (.6357 OPS)
Nationals platooned two guys who washed out on five different teams between them, which is more than I need to know about the Nationals.

We Just Want a Hit

It's frustrating enough the Mets can't develop good hitters. I'm not even sure they know what one is.


When Derek Jeter was making his chase toward the Yankees' all-time hit record earlier this year, three things stuck out for me:

1) this was an awful lot of coverage for a team hit record. I mean, would anyone on the Kansas City Royals or Milwaukee Brewers get the same amount of coverage?
2) a radio announcer said Jeter had a chance to break Pete Rose's all-time hit record, which I initially dismissed, reviewed, and revised my opinion (more on that some other time);
3) the Mets' all-time hit leader is still Ed Kranepool.

Actually, I knew about that one a long time ago. In Bill James' 1992 Baseball Book, his notes on the Mets stated the Mets' all-time hitting records, even considering they're an adolescent franchise, were disgraceful. "Ed Kranepool, for Chrissakes, is the all-time Mets hit leader. And no one's chasing him." Well, that was 18 years ago, and the situation's still the same.

The problem is not Ed Kranepool's fault – hey, he got the maximum out of his limited abilities, and played for the team for 19 seasons – it's the Mets' fault for their inability to develop hitters. I put together a list of the 100 players with the most hits that have played since the Mets started business in 1962 (so Stan Musial, who retired after the 1963 season, is on this list, while Ted Williams, who retired in 1960, is not), and added the team that developed the player. (For the most part, that's the team for whom the player toiled in the minors, although I've made a couple of exceptions -- Roberto Clemente, for example, would likely never have played for the Dodgers, but the Pittsburgh Pirates saw something and drafted him away.)

Of the 30 teams now playing, only the four most recent expansion teams -- the Colorado Rockies, Florida Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Tampa Bay Rays -- and the Mets are the only teams with nobody on the list.

1. Pete Rose, Cincinnati Reds
2. Hank Aaron, Atlanta (Milwaukee) Braves
3. Stan Musial, St. Louis Cardinals
4. Carl Yastrzemski, Boston Red Sox
5. Paul Molitor, Milwaukee Brewers
6. Willie Mays, San Francisco (New York) Giants
7. Eddie Murray, Baltimore Orioles
8. Cal Ripken, Baltimore Orioles
9. George Brett, Kansas City Royals
10. Robin Yount, Milwaukee Brewers

11. Tony Gwynn, San Diego Padres
12. Dave Winfield, San Diego Padres
13. Craig Biggio, Houston Astros
14. Rickey Henderson, Oakland Athletics
15. Rod Carew, Minnesota Twins
16. Lou Brock, Chicago Cubs
17. Rafael Palmeiro, Chicago Cubs
18. Wade Boggs, Boston Red Sox
19. Al Kaline, Detroit Tigers
20. Roberto Clemente, Pittsburgh Pirates

21. Frank Robinson, Cincinnati Reds
22. Barry Bonds, Pittsburgh Pirates
23. Harold Baines, Chicago White Sox
24. Brooks Robinson, Baltimore Orioles
25. Andre Dawson, Montreal Expos
26. Ken Griffey Jr., Seattle Mariners
27. Vada Pinson, Cincinnati Reds
28. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
29. Al Oliver, Pittsburgh Pirates
30. Tony Perez, Cincinnati Reds

31. Roberto Alomar, San Diego Padres
32. Rusty Staub, Houston Astros
33. Bill Buckner, Los Angeles Dodgers
34. Dave Parker, Pittsburgh Pirates
35. Ivan Rodriguez, Texas Rangers
36. Billy Williams, Chicago Cubs
37. Omar Vizquel, Seattle Mariners
38. Gary Sheffield, Milwaukee Brewers
39. Luis Aparicio, Chicago White Sox
40. Nellie Fox, Oakland (Philadelphia?) Athletics

41. Tim Raines, Montreal Expos
42. Steve Garvey, Los Angeles Dodgers
43. Luis Gonzalez, Houston Astros
44. Julio Franco, Texas Rangers
45. Reggie Jackson, Oakland (Kansas City) Athletics
46. Ernie Banks, Chicago Cubs
47. Richie Ashburn, Philadelphia Phillies
48. Willie Davis, Los Angeles Dodgers
49. Steve Finley, Baltimore Orioles
50. Alex Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners

51. Joe Morgan, Houston Astros
52. Buddy Bell, Cleveland Indians
53. Garrett Anderson, Los Angeles (California) Angels of Anaheim
54. Manny Ramirez, Cleveland Indians
55. Fred McGriff, Toronto Blue Jays
56. Ted Simmons, St. Louis Cardinals
57. Frank Thomas, Chicago White Sox
58. Jeff Kent, Toronto Blue Jays
59. Ozzie Smith, San Diego Padres
60. Jim Rice, Boston Red Sox

61. Red Schoendienst, St. Louis Cardinals
62. Dwight Evans, Boston Red Sox
63. Mark Grace, Chicago Cubs
64. Kenny Lofton, Cleveland Indians
65. Johnny Damon, Kansas City Royals
66. Mickey Mantle, New York Yankees
67. Sammy Sosa, Texas Rangers
68. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves
69. Ryne Sandberg, Philadelphia Phillies
70. Chili Davis, San Francisco Giants

71. Brett Butler, Atlanta Braves
72. Lou Whitaker, Detroit Tigers
73. Alan Trammell, Detroit Tigers
74. Carlton Fisk, Boston Red Sox
75. Orlando Cepeda, San Francisco (New York) Giants
76. Joe Torre, Atlanta (Milwaukee) Braves
77. Barry Larkin, Cincinnati Red
78. Bernie Williams, New York Yankees
79. Andres Galarraga, Montreal Expos
80. Dave Concepcion, Cincinnati Reds

81. B.J. Surhoff, Milwaukee Brewers
82. Eddie Matthews, Atlanta (Boston?) Braves
83. Jeff Bagwell, Boston Red Sox
84. Kirby Puckett, Minnesota Twins
85. Gary Gaetti, Minnesota Twins
86. Tony Fernandez, Toronto Blue Jays
87. Willie McGee, St. Louis Cardinals
88. Ron Santo, Chicago Cubs
89. Marquis Grissom, Montreal Expos
90. Jose Cruz, St. Louis Cardinals

91. Vladimir Guerrero, Montreal Expos
92. Bert Campaneris, Oakland (Kansas City) Athletics
93. Edgar Martinez, Seattle Mariners
94. John Olerud, Toronto Blue Jays
95. Mike Schmidt, Philadelphia Phillies
96. Willie Stargell, Pittsburgh Pirates
97. Graig Nettles, Minnesota Twins
98. Darrell Evans, Atlanta Braves
99. Willie McCovey, San Francisco Giants
100. Willie Randolph, Pittsburgh Pirates

The player with the most hits the Mets developed is Ken Singleton, who had just over 2,000 hits. (Of course, he only played a little over one season for the team before he was traded away.)

Speaking of Singleton, note this is the organization that developed the hitter. He may have been traded away after before his career got in gear (that's why Lou Brock is listed as a Chicago Cub, much to the embarrassment of fans here).

The interesting thing is no team has more than six players on the list, and all but two of the other 25 teams has at least three (Kansas City has two, and the Angels one). A bunch of teams are tied with six: Atlanta, Boston, the Cubs, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh.

Now, the Mets have 14 players who played for them at one time or another one the list. (No big deal, the Yankees have 13.) They are:

#6 - Willie Mays
#7 - Eddie Murray
#14 - Rickey Henderson
#31 - Roberto Alomar
#32 - Rusty Staub
#38 - Gary Sheffield
#44 - Julio Franco
#47 - Richie Ashburn
#58 - Jeff Kent
#71 - Brett Butler
#76 - Joe Torre
#86 - Tony Fernandez
#94 - John Olerud
#100 - Willie Randolph

Notice something here? With the exceptions of Staub, Kent, and Olerud, all of these players were Mets when their careers were circling the drain. (I suppose you could make an argument for Eddie Murray or Tony Fernandez.) The Mets seem to have a habit of getting great hitters at the tail end of their careers, and in some cases were surprised when they had very little left. Compare this to the Yankees, who not only have their three homegrown guys (Jeter, Mickey Mantle, and Bernie Williams), but almost every other player who played for them on this list that they picked up along the way was at or near peak: Dave Winfield, Gary Sheffield, Reggie Jackson, Alex Rodriguez, Johnny Damon, and so on.

Okay, that part is what it is. The question is, what can the Mets do about the future?

1) Focus on developing hitters. Gee, that seems obvious. But it's clearly been a problem -- it's one thing to have developed great hitters and trade them away, but the situation is worse for the Mets, in that they're not developing anyone. The organization has been extant for nearly 50 years; by this time they should know how to scout and choose good hitters.
2) Keep the good players. The roster of bad trades the Mets have made is legendary: Amos Otis for Joe Foy, Nolan Ryan for Jim Fregosi, Rick Aguilera and Kevin Tapani for Frank Viola, Melvin Mora for Mike Bordick, Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano. Most of these trades have been similar: a bunch of young guys for a (semi-)established star. (I will say the Johan Santana trade has worked out quite well, so it's not foolproof.) I'm happy to say David Wright and Jose Reyes, who both have just under a thousand hits apiece, are both signed to long-term contracts -- Wright through 2012, Reyes through next year, with club options for both. Carlos Beltran, who should appear on this list in a year or two, is also signed through 2011.
3) Don't fall in love with free agent hitters older than 32. This is a failing of GM Omar Minaya, who, now that he has money to spend (he didn't when he was Montreal's GM), spends it. Of the "circling the drain" players listed above, excluding Julio Franco (who was acquired strictly to pinch-hit and carried minimal expectations), the only player younger than 32 was Tony Fernandez (who put up his career-worst numbers in a Met uniform). The others ranged in age from 34 (Alomar) to 41 (Mays). Picking up hitters at that age and expecting them to perform as they have is not a winning strategy. Pitchers will occasionally put up good seasons at that age, but hitters peak in their late 20s (throwing out the steroid years), and start falling off gradually from age 30 on. That's why, if the Mets had the choice between Matt Holliday and Jason Bay, all other things being equal, Holliday would be the better choice, as he's two years younger. But a better choice would be to find someone younger still, if they can.

By the way, the Mets once had Jason Bay as a minor leaguer. They traded him away