Justin Upton Re-Signs With Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Welcome to the first day of the Hot Stove League (also known as the time period between the end of the World Series and the day pitchers and catchers report). The California/Anaheim/Los Angeles Angels (they've used all of those geographic locations in their name, despite being in the same stadium the last half century) are the first team off the block, signing Justin Upton to a five-year extension for a reported $106 million over the next five years. The good news for the Angels is, according to the Los Angeles Times, there's some payroll flexibility early in the contract, as his salary will be $16 million next year and $18 million in 2019, which will give them the opportunity to find some help in the infield (where they need it). The bad news is he'll be paid a whopping $28 million in 2022, when he turns 35 years old and Angel fans will be wondering why they inked the deal. (Good news, Angel fans: by 2022 Albert Pujols' contact will have finally ended.)

Upton had a very good year in 2017, splitting time between the Angels and the Detroit Tigers (Detroit dealt him August 31 for Grayson Long and Elvin Rodriguez; both of them might make the deal work for the Tigers.) Baseball Reference had Upton at 5.2 WAR (wins over replacement player) overall last season, which was his best season since 2011 with the Arizona Diamondbacks (he put up a 6.1 WAR that year and finished fourth in the MVP voting). He's now been in the league for 11 seasons, having made his debut with the Diamondbacks at age 19. The only thing that would worry me from a fan's standpoint is he's been inconsistent - since that 2011 season he's averaged about 3.45 WAR per season, but he's been anywhere from 2.0 to 5.2 WAR during that time - is he going to age gracefully, or fall off a cliff?

Jeff Joiner at SB Nation's Halos Heaven blog wasn't expecting Upton back as of last week, and felt the money could be better used elsewhere, and I get his point - the Angels desperately need a second baseman, unless they think Kaleb Cowart is going to step up. There really aren't many great free agent options (do the Angels really want to spend a pile of money on another guy in his mid-30s?), and the trade options aren't much better, so maybe they'll try working from within.

They also might expect at least one of the guys returning at the three corners beside Upton (C.J. Cron, Luis Valbuena, Kole Calhoun) to move back up next year, as all three were over 60 OPS points below their 2016 levels. Most importantly, Mike Trout should play a full season next year (he missed 48 games in 2017), and remember, he'll still be just 26.

Joe Girardi's Next Stop

Okay, so Joe Girardi’s out as manager of the Yankees, for whatever reason. (I’ve read both that the Yankees wanted to get rid of him and he wanted out, so who knows?) But where does he go from here?

I see him getting hired soon. Coincidentally, I spent a few minutes talking with a manager at Culver’s last weekend, who got to know Girardi from his time in high school and college baseball, and said what a wonderful guy he was. However, CBS Sports also reported he may want to take a break for a while (he’s now 53 years old), and he did have a couple years of broadcasting experience with the Yankees.

Assuming he wants a new managerial job (unless ESPN or Fox swoops in to hire him), let’s have fun and look at him matching up with the other 29 teams. In some cases a change might seem obvious; in others it would be unlikely – on the other hand, the Cubs bounced a good one-season manager (Rich Renteria) in favor of Joe Maddon, and that worked out pretty well for them. The current manager is listed in parentheses.

Arizona Diamondbacks (Torey Lovullo) – No. The Diamondbacks made the playoffs this year in their first year under Lovullo, so I don’t see them pushing him aside.

Atlanta Braves (Brian Snitker) – Possible. Snitker was not supposed to be a sure thing to come back at the end of last year. I’m not sure whether the Braves are precisely on the right track in their rebuild, however, so we’ll have to see what happens.

Baltimore Orioles (Buck Showalter) – Sure. Showalter hasn’t been able to get the Orioles over the hump, and Peter Angelos has been known to make sudden managerial changes.

Boston Red Sox (Alex Cora) – No. They just hired Cora. (It would certainly tick off Yankee fans, however.)

Chicago Cubs (Joe Maddon) – Obviously not.

Chicago White Sox (Rich Renteria) – Poor Rich Renteria – could you imagine that happening to him twice? No, I don’t see the Sox making a move; they seem pretty happy with Renteria and the Sox haven’t hired a veteran manager in decades.

Cincinnati Reds (Bryan Price) – Absoutely; I’m surprised Price is still there. But I don’t get the sense the Reds are the best organization right now, so I’m not sure Girardi would want to go here.

Cleveland Indians (Terry Francona) – No chance. Francona is beloved in the organization.

Colorado Rockies (Bud Black) – No. Black had a great first season with the club, steering them to an unexpected wild card spot. Girardi did play here for a few years, however.

Detroit Tigers (Ron Gardenhire) – No. Gardenhire was just named manager, and the Tigers are at the beginning of a rebuild.

Houston Astros (A.J. Hinch) – No. They’re in the World Series now.

Kansas City Royals (Ned Yost) – Probably not. The Royals will need to do some rebuilding, and while Joe Girardi has one World Series win, so does Ned Yost.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (Mike Scioscia) – Doubtful. They haven’t played well lately, but Scioscia appears to be buddies with owner Arte Moreno; several GMs have come and gone but Scioscia stays around.

Los Angeles Dodgers (Dave Roberts) – No. They’re in the World Series, too.

Miami Marlins (Don Mattingly) – Doubtful. Girardi managed here before he went to the Yankees, only to be canned by impulsive then-owner Jeffrey Loria. Also, how would Girardi adjust to having one of his former players (Derek Jeter) being his boss?

Minnesota Twins (Paul Molitor) – Probably not. Minnesota had a surprise wild card this year.

Milwaukee Brewers (Craig Counsell) – No. The Brewers exceeded expectations this year, and Counsell is well liked, plus he has a long history with the franchise.

New York Mets (Mickey Callaway) – No. Callaway was hired earlier this week. (Bad timing, Mets.)

Oakland Athletics (Bob Melvin) – Absolutely. Bob Melvin hasn’t shown much as manager so far. Not sure if Billy Beane could meet Girardi’s price tag, however.
Philadelphia Phillies (vacant) – Back up the Brinks truck. The Phillies have an up-and-coming team, and it wouldn’t be far for Girardi to move. I don’t think they’ll do it, but it’s the best match.
Pittsburgh Pirates (Clint Hurdle) – No. I think Hurdle just signed an extension; he seems to have a good relationship with GM Neal Huntington.

St. Louis Cardinals (Mike Matheny) – Yes. Matheny just signed an extension, but his in-game skills have been questioned over the years, and the Cardinals have been slipping the past few years despite having a pile of prospects. I wouldn’t be surprised if Girardi waits for this job, which is among baseball’s best.

San Diego Padres (Andy Green) – No. I’ve heard nothing but good things about Green.
San Francisco Giants (Bruce Bochy) – No. Girardi may have won a World Series, but Bochy has won three.

Seattle Mariners (Scott Servais) – Yes. The Mariners were a disappointment this year, and Servais hasn’t shown much in two years. This is another one that Girardi may wait on.

Tampa Bay Rays (Kevin Cash) – Unlikely. The Rays seem to like Cash, and the market’s kind of small, so I don’t think they could afford Girardi.
Texas Rangers (Jeff Banister) – Unlikely. Banister seems to be popular with Texas, and he brought them to an unexpected wild card in 2016.

Toronto Blue Jays (John Gibbons) – Possible. The Jays were a disappointment last year, which might be more the fault of the front office than Gibbons, but he could still take the fall.
Washington Nationals (vacant) – Absoutely, but… the Nationals are notorious cheapskates when it comes to hiring managers. They backed out of hiring Bud Black after he wouldn’t agree to being lowballed, and three of their last four managers were considered somewhat washed up (Jim Riggleman, Davey Johnson, Dusty Baker), with the other being Matt Williams, a rookie manager who didn’t work out. I can’t see Girardi coming here.

So Who Hasn't Signed Yet? The Hitters

I mean to get to this yesterday; sorry.  Here are the as-yet-unsigned hitters, and we’re now halfway into spring training.  So they’d better find something soon.

No catchers are unsigned.

Infielders

• David Freese – Of all the guys that haven’t gotten a contract, to me this is the real headscratcher.  He’s the youngest of the position players (32), and he hit a reasonable .257/.323/.420 last year with the Angels.  He’s not going to set the world on fire, but he’s a reasonable option.  I’m guessing the contenders have better choices, and the rebuilding teams are saving their money.  I’m assuming Sandy Alderson, the Mets’ GM, has his agent on speed dial in case/when David Wright gets hurt again. 
• Corey Hart – He may be done.  He’s had a ton of injuries the last couple of years (missed all of 2013, just 57 plate appearances last year with Pittsburgh).  Still, he slugged over .500 three years in a row from 2010-2012, so an American League team in need of a right-handed DH could take a chance on him.
• Justin Morneau – Another guy who may be done, primarily due to concussions.  He stands a good chance of going into management if that’s the case.
• Dan Uggla – Almost definitely done.  He’s 36, he’s been under the Mendoza line the last three years, and the only position he plays is second base (and he doesn’t play that particularly well). 

Outfielders

• Marlon Byrd – Another guy who could be useful as a righty bat/DH/good guy to have around the clubhouse, even though he’s 38.  Hit .247/.290/.453 in 544 plate appearances between the Reds and the Giants last year, so it’s a bit odd he’s not with somebody right now.
• Nate McLouth – Probably done.  He missed all of 2015 after undergoing surgery on his shoulder, and hit .173/.280/.237 in 162 plate appearances with the Nationals in 2014, so I doubt there’s much of a market for him; it would be just as easy to pay a veteran minor leaguer the MLB minimum.
• Alex Rios – his OPS numbers the last four years:  .850, .756, .709, .640.  Apparently no one’s interested in finding out what the next number in that sequence will be.
• Grady Sizemore – He’s only 33, but he missed all of 2012-2013 and most of 2010-2011 due to injury, so he’s probably older in baseball years.  Did hit .257/.318/.429 with the Rays last year after Philadelphia dropped him, but he can really only play left and right field at this point, which hurts his value.

So Who Hasn't Signed Yet?

We’re now about three weeks into spring training, and almost every free agent has been plucked from the vine (Austin Jackson, who had been waiting around for awhile, was signed by the Chicago White Sox Saturday; he’ll help fill in left field and right field for them).  There are still a few guys around who might be worth poking at for teams desperately in need, while others are almost certainly done.  I’ll address the position players tomorrow; here’s what’s going on with the pitchers. 

Starting Pitchers

• Tim Lincecum is the top name in the group and is available, and apparently the Padres have interest in him.  That might be worth watching – Lincecum underwent hip surgery last year, and while the Pads have taken chances on injured pitchers (Josh Johnson), it generally hasn’t worked out (Josh Johnson).
• Chad Billingsley has only pitched 49 innings in the majors in the last three years, and has had surgery twice on his flexor tendon.  I don’t think he’ll be back; almost certainly not this year.
• Aaron Harang is now 38, and if he hadn’t had a decent year in 2014 with Atlanta (sandwiched in between two terrible ones), we probably wouldn’t be talking about him.
• Mark Buehrle is presumed retired, but he did pitch nearly 200 innings last year, so it’s possible someone might pay him enough money to tempt him back for another season.  Roger Clemens occasionally waited until May to sign with a team, and it worked for him.  (However, when Roy Oswalt did the same thing, it didn’t work at all.)
• Josh Johnson underwent Tommy John surgery for the third time late last year, and is presumed out for all of 2016.  He hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2013, so his chances of a successful comeback aren’t very good.
• Cliff Lee is presumed retired.
• Kyle Lohse had an awful year with the Brewers last year, but (unlike Matt Garza, who threw a fit when the Brewers dumped him into the bullpen to look at youngsters), took it pretty well.  I don’t think he’ll be back (he’s now 37), but someone might take a flyer on him.  The only number of his that really jumped last year was home runs allowed, so perhaps switching to more of a pitchers’ park (Miami? San Diego?) would help.
• Alfredo Simon isn’t really a starter – he had one fluky good year with Cincinnati in 2014, and a lousy one last year with Detroit.  It’s possible a team might bring him in as a swing man in the bullpen, but I would think they’d have done that by now – it would take awhile for him to get in shape.  But since the only headlines he’s made since season’s end were for settling a rape lawsuit, it doesn’t sound like he’ll be back.
• Jerome Williams has been on the fence like this before, and will probably start the year in the minors if he wants to continue.
• Randy Wolf is in the same situation as Williams.  I didn’t even realize he was still active until I saw in Baseball Prospectus he went 0-5 with Detroit last year.  Given he hasn’t had an ERA under four in MLB since 2009, he probably isn’t fielding lots of offers.

Relief Pitchers

• Joe Beimel is a LOOGY that started running out of gas last year (5.48 ERA).  He’d probably be willing to sign a minor-league deal; he spent half of 2014 in the minors.
• Randy Choate is also a LOOGY and is now 40, but he did have a pretty decent year last year.  The Astros were supposedly taking a look at him, so there’s a decent chance he’ll latch on with someone.
• Sean Marshall missed much of 2013 and 2014 and all of 2015, but he’s still hoping for another shot.  When he was healthy, he was an important part of the Cubs and Reds bullpens.
• Joe Nathan missed virtually all of 2015 and was none too effective in 2014.  He definitely won’t go back to Detroit.  Someone else might give him a tryout, but it hasn’t happened yet, and given he's now 41, there are no guarantees.

When I Say My Team Stinks, I Mean It - Baseball Edition

So this is why your team is good (or lousy).

I decided to crunch the numbers for all 30 MLB teams from 1960 onward, similar to what I did for the NFL a year ago.  Here are the stats:

Year	Regular Season Wins	Regular Season Losses	Regular Season Winning Pct.	95+ Win Seasons	95+ Loss Seasons
New York Yankees	4992	3925	0.5598	23	1
Los Angeles Dodgers	4798	4131	0.5374	10	1
St. Louis Cardinals	4731	4186	0.5306	10	0
Boston Red Sox	4708	4219	0.5274	11	1
Cincinnati Reds	4651	4272	0.5212	9	3
Baltimore Orioles	4637	4274	0.5204	13	7
Milwaukee/Atlanta Braves	4621	4282	0.5190	11	6
San Francisco Giants	4634	4297	0.5189	6	2
Chicago White Sox	4499	4422	0.5043	5	4
Kansas City/Oakland Athletics	4491	4438	0.5030	10	8
Los Angeles/California/Anaheim Angels	4403	4377	0.5015	5	2
Detroit Tigers	4462	4469	0.4996	6	7
Philadelphia Phillies	4425	4444	0.4989	5	10
Pittsburgh Pirates	4439	4475	0.4980	9	8
Toronto Blue Jays	3078	3115	0.4970	4	4
Washington Senators/Minnesota Twins	4430	4495	0.4964	5	5
Arizona Diamondbacks	1444	1482	0.4935	2	4
Houston Colt .45s/Astros	4206	4413	0.4880	3	9
Cleveland Indians	4344	4569	0.4874	4	6
Kansas City Royals	3623	3852	0.4847	3	9
Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals	3610	3868	0.4827	3	7
New York Mets	4128	4480	0.4796	6	13
Texas Rangers	4182	4582	0.4772	2	11
Seattle Pilots/Milwaukee Brewers	3569	3912	0.4771	3	5
Chicago Cubs	4244	4679	0.4756	3	10
Florida/Miami Marlins	1714	1944	0.4686	0	4
Seattle Mariners	2898	3295	0.4679	1	11
Colorado Rockies	1709	1955	0.4664	0	4
Tampa Bay Devil Rays/Rays	1352	1562	0.4640	2	7
San Diego Padres	3472	4016	0.4637	1	11
Year	Post-season Game Wins	Post-season Game Losses	Post-season Winning Pct.	League Champs (Pennants)	World Series Champs	Average Seasons In Playoffs
New York Yankees	138	106	0.5656	16	9	48.21%
Los Angeles Dodgers	59	67	0.4683	8	4	33.93%
St. Louis Cardinals	103	90	0.5337	10	5	33.93%
Boston Red Sox	66	66	0.5000	6	3	26.79%
Cincinnati Reds	40	36	0.5263	6	3	21.43%
Baltimore Orioles	52	39	0.5714	6	3	21.43%
Milwaukee/Atlanta Braves	63	71	0.4701	5	1	32.14%
San Francisco Giants	57	46	0.5534	6	3	19.64%
Chicago White Sox	15	14	0.5172	1	1	8.93%
Kansas City/Oakland Athletics	58	57	0.5043	6	4	32.14%
Los Angeles/California/Anaheim Angels	27	37	0.4219	1	1	18.18%
Detroit Tigers	39	37	0.5132	4	2	16.07%
Philadelphia Phillies	48	46	0.5106	5	2	21.43%
Pittsburgh Pirates	32	39	0.4507	3	3	23.21%
Toronto Blue Jays	26	26	0.5000	2	2	15.38%
Washington Senators/Minnesota Twins	25	39	0.3906	3	2	19.64%
Arizona Diamondbacks	17	16	0.5152	1	1	27.78%
Houston Colt .45s/Astros	24	38	0.3871	1	0	18.52%
Cleveland Indians	35	34	0.5072	2	0	14.29%
Kansas City Royals	39	34	0.5342	4	2	19.15%
Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals	9	11	0.4500	0	0	6.38%
New York Mets	51	37	0.5795	5	2	14.81%
Texas Rangers	21	28	0.4286	2	0	12.73%
Seattle Pilots/Milwaukee Brewers	14	18	0.4375	1	0	8.51%
Chicago Cubs	12	27	0.3077	0	0	12.50%
Florida/Miami Marlins	22	11	0.6667	2	2	8.70%
Seattle Mariners	15	19	0.4412	0	0	10.26%
Colorado Rockies	9	10	0.4737	1	0	13.04%
Tampa Bay Devil Rays/Rays	12	17	0.4138	1	0	22.22%
San Diego Padres	12	22	0.3529	2	0	10.64%

1) Not surprisingly, the New York Yankees have been the best team during that span.  I was a little surprised by how far in front they were – their winning percentage of .5598 is over 20 percentage points ahead of the next team, the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Yankees, Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals, Boston Red Sox, and Cincinnati Reds currently fill out the top five.

2) Expansion teams are at a huge disadvantage.  Of the fourteen teams that have been added from 1961 on, only one has an overall winning percentage above .500 – the Los Angeles/California/Anaheim Angels, who checked in at #11 with a .5015 winning percentage.  No other expansion team is over .500 overall.  Further, only two of the original 16 teams are below the Arizona Diamondbacks at #17 – the Cleveland Indians (#19) and the Chicago Cubs (#25).

3) The worst teams?  Congratulations, San Diego:  your Padres are horrible!  With a .4637 overall winning percentage, they check in at #30, with Tampa Bay, Colorado, Seattle, and the Florida/Miami Marlins in order as the next worst teams.  The Padres have had a history of misguided owners (C. Arnold Smith!  The Krocs, Ray and Joan!  Tom Werner and Marcy Carsey!), which hasn’t helped.  That said, I expect Colorado to make it to the bottom in the next couple of years, as the Padres seem to be straightening out their issues (slowly), while the Monfort brothers have been and will likely continue to run the Rockies further into the ground.

4) One of the guides to how good or bad your team has been is 95-win or 95-loss seasons.  Obviously, a huge number of bad seasons in a row creates a gigantic hole to dig out of.  My New York Mets are a prime example of this – they lost 95 or more games each of their first six seasons, and had a winning percentage of .348 (that’s not a typo) from 1962 to 1968.  They’re nine games under .500 since then, but that’s an awfully big hole.

5) The Yankees, not surprisingly, have the most 95-win seasons, with 23 out of the 56 seasons from 1960 to 2015.  The Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals, and Red Sox have combined for 54 95-win seasons during that span, with only three 95-loss seasons in the debit column.  The Mets have the most 95-loss seasons overall at 13 – but they also have the most 95-win seasons among the expansion teams with six.  Feast or famine.  The Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, and San Diego Padres have eleven 95-loss seasons apiece, which is most embarrassing to the Mariners, given they’ve only been around since 1977.

6) As you might guess, the Yankees have also won 138 post-season (playoff and World Series) games, more than any other team, with the Cardinals in second.  (Those teams also rank first and second in post-season losses, but it’s better to be there than not.)  Win percentage in the postseason is quite different, however – the Florida Marlins actually have the best postseason winning percentage at .667, thanks to their two fluky World Series wins in 1997 and 2003 (they’ve never been in the postseason any other year).  And the Mets, as lousy as they’ve been at times in the regular season, have the second best postseason winning percentage at .580.  Worst goes to the Chicago Cubs (with their three wins and five losses this past year, they were able to bring their winning percentage up to .308), followed by the Padres.

7) The Yankees have also won the most pennants (16) and World Series (9) during this time period, with the Cardinals in second in both categories.  Among the expansion teams, the Mets have won the most pennants with five, and are in a four-way tie with Kansas City, Toronto, and Florida/Miami with two World Series wins apiece.  The Expos/Nationals franchise is tied with Seattle and the Cubs for the futility record – no pennants, no World Series.

8) Finally, the Yankees have been in the postseason an astonishing 48 percent of the time, with the Dodgers and Cardinals checking in by making the postseason 34 percent of the time.  The Arizona Diamondbacks have the best record among the expansion teams by making the playoffs 28 percent of the time – but that’s a bit misleading; their sample size is smaller (18 years) and there are a lot more playoff spots now than there were 30 or 50 years ago.  The Nationals, Brewers, and Marlins bring up the rear – along with the Chicago White Sox, even though their overall winning percentage is over .500.