The Remaining Free Agents

Okay, let’s take a look at the biggest MLB free agents still out there, and why they aren’t signed.

1B Eric Hosmer

Hosmer’s gotten offers – he’s got two seven-year deals on the table, from San Diego for $140 million and from Kansas City (where he’s been for seven years) for $147 million. According to USA Today, he’s trying to get a nine-year deal like Prince Fielder or an eight-year deal like Jason Heyward. This may be part of the problem: no general manager wants to give out contracts that are comparable to Prince Fielder’s (he racked up 6.9 WAR in the first six years of the deal at a cost of $142 million, then had to retire because of back issues) or Jason Heyward’s (3.9 WAR over two years with the Cubs, after 31.1 WAR in his first six seasons with Atlanta and St. Louis, at a cost of nearly $50 million for those two years – he has the right to opt out after this season, but how likely is that to happen?). Teams may be wising up to the idea that players are going downhill quicker than they were 15 years ago – the idea of an everyday player putting up the same numbers until his late 30s, except for the years 1995-2005 or so (e.g. The Steroid and Amphetamine Years) was pretty much only done by Hall of Famers. Anyway, I would think Hosmer would take one of the two offers – except his agent’s Scott Boras, who tends to be hardheaded about these things.

SP Yu Darvish

Darvish also has offers on the table, but is waiting for bigger offers from either the Yankees or Dodgers. I doubt he’ll get them (both of those teams may be saving money for Bryce Harper). Also, Darvish missed all of 2015 with Tommy John surgery, so he’s not guaranteed, and he had a lousy World Series. He could wind up with the Cubs, the Brewers, or back with Texas. Look for him to sign in the next few days.  UPDATE:  Darvish has apparently agreed to terms on a six-year deal with the Cubs for $126 million.

OF J.D. Martinez

Outfielder should be in quotes; Martinez is not a good fielder. He was looking for huge money, but he’s finished in the top 10 in WAR precisely once (10^th, in 2014). So he’s a good hitter, but he was apparently looking for seven years at $30 million a year – and that’s not going to happen to a guy who was born to DH. The Red Sox are offering $125 over five years, which is still rarified territory – he’d be among the top 15 highest-paid players, per USA Today (and I’m pretty sure the GMs for at least five of those players are now saying, “I wish I could do that one over”). But his agent is Scott Boras, so Martinez is indicating he’s not happy with the Sox’ offer – which may lead them to withdraw it (he’s not going to play the outfield with Betts, Bradley Jr., and Benintendi there, and if he DHs for the Sox, Hanley Ramirez has no place to play), in which case he’d be really screwed.

SP Jake Arrieta

This one’s easy. Arrieta’s WAR numbers the last three years: 8.7, 3.4, 1.9. Who wants to be the GM who finds out the hard way what the next number is in that sequence? USA Today is theorizing he’ll go to the Nationals, and if they pay $120 million for five years, they’ll regret it. Scott Boras is his agent, too, and Arrieta’s the most likely to sit and wait for what he wants. (Not a good plan for pitchers; Roy Oswalt did that a few years ago, and instantly became an old man when he finally signed.)

3B Mike Moustakas

Moustakas is only 29, so you’d think teams would be interested in him – but there are less openings for third basemen than one might expect. Also, he’s only had a season over 2.0 WAR twice in seven years, and, well, I can see why the Mets took Todd Frazier. I think he’ll actually get a multiyear deal – the Yankees may step up – but two issues: the Royals would get a compensatory pick from the signing team, and (stop me if you’ve heard this one) Scott Boras is his agent. (Honestly, I think teams are conspiring against Boras, not free agents.)

SP Lance Lynn, SP Alex Cobb, RP Greg Holland

I’m putting these guys in a group because they have the same issue – they all had Tommy John surgery in 2015 (Darvish had his in 2014). They all had pretty good years last year, but not spectacular. Still, I’d take Lynn (who’s a pretty solid starting pitcher) or Holland pretty quickly. (Holland’s been accused of having a bad second half, but he actually had one really bad month – August. His month-by-month ERAs: 1.50, 1.17, 1.69, 2.25, 13.50, 1.86. If his lousy month had been September I’d be more worried, but it looks like he fixed whatever the problem was.) Also, none of these guys are repped by Scott Boras. Something will get done for all three pretty soon.

Justin Upton Re-Signs With Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Welcome to the first day of the Hot Stove League (also known as the time period between the end of the World Series and the day pitchers and catchers report). The California/Anaheim/Los Angeles Angels (they've used all of those geographic locations in their name, despite being in the same stadium the last half century) are the first team off the block, signing Justin Upton to a five-year extension for a reported $106 million over the next five years. The good news for the Angels is, according to the Los Angeles Times, there's some payroll flexibility early in the contract, as his salary will be $16 million next year and $18 million in 2019, which will give them the opportunity to find some help in the infield (where they need it). The bad news is he'll be paid a whopping $28 million in 2022, when he turns 35 years old and Angel fans will be wondering why they inked the deal. (Good news, Angel fans: by 2022 Albert Pujols' contact will have finally ended.)

Upton had a very good year in 2017, splitting time between the Angels and the Detroit Tigers (Detroit dealt him August 31 for Grayson Long and Elvin Rodriguez; both of them might make the deal work for the Tigers.) Baseball Reference had Upton at 5.2 WAR (wins over replacement player) overall last season, which was his best season since 2011 with the Arizona Diamondbacks (he put up a 6.1 WAR that year and finished fourth in the MVP voting). He's now been in the league for 11 seasons, having made his debut with the Diamondbacks at age 19. The only thing that would worry me from a fan's standpoint is he's been inconsistent - since that 2011 season he's averaged about 3.45 WAR per season, but he's been anywhere from 2.0 to 5.2 WAR during that time - is he going to age gracefully, or fall off a cliff?

Jeff Joiner at SB Nation's Halos Heaven blog wasn't expecting Upton back as of last week, and felt the money could be better used elsewhere, and I get his point - the Angels desperately need a second baseman, unless they think Kaleb Cowart is going to step up. There really aren't many great free agent options (do the Angels really want to spend a pile of money on another guy in his mid-30s?), and the trade options aren't much better, so maybe they'll try working from within.

They also might expect at least one of the guys returning at the three corners beside Upton (C.J. Cron, Luis Valbuena, Kole Calhoun) to move back up next year, as all three were over 60 OPS points below their 2016 levels. Most importantly, Mike Trout should play a full season next year (he missed 48 games in 2017), and remember, he'll still be just 26.

Joe Girardi's Next Stop

Okay, so Joe Girardi’s out as manager of the Yankees, for whatever reason. (I’ve read both that the Yankees wanted to get rid of him and he wanted out, so who knows?) But where does he go from here?

I see him getting hired soon. Coincidentally, I spent a few minutes talking with a manager at Culver’s last weekend, who got to know Girardi from his time in high school and college baseball, and said what a wonderful guy he was. However, CBS Sports also reported he may want to take a break for a while (he’s now 53 years old), and he did have a couple years of broadcasting experience with the Yankees.

Assuming he wants a new managerial job (unless ESPN or Fox swoops in to hire him), let’s have fun and look at him matching up with the other 29 teams. In some cases a change might seem obvious; in others it would be unlikely – on the other hand, the Cubs bounced a good one-season manager (Rich Renteria) in favor of Joe Maddon, and that worked out pretty well for them. The current manager is listed in parentheses.

Arizona Diamondbacks (Torey Lovullo) – No. The Diamondbacks made the playoffs this year in their first year under Lovullo, so I don’t see them pushing him aside.

Atlanta Braves (Brian Snitker) – Possible. Snitker was not supposed to be a sure thing to come back at the end of last year. I’m not sure whether the Braves are precisely on the right track in their rebuild, however, so we’ll have to see what happens.

Baltimore Orioles (Buck Showalter) – Sure. Showalter hasn’t been able to get the Orioles over the hump, and Peter Angelos has been known to make sudden managerial changes.

Boston Red Sox (Alex Cora) – No. They just hired Cora. (It would certainly tick off Yankee fans, however.)

Chicago Cubs (Joe Maddon) – Obviously not.

Chicago White Sox (Rich Renteria) – Poor Rich Renteria – could you imagine that happening to him twice? No, I don’t see the Sox making a move; they seem pretty happy with Renteria and the Sox haven’t hired a veteran manager in decades.

Cincinnati Reds (Bryan Price) – Absoutely; I’m surprised Price is still there. But I don’t get the sense the Reds are the best organization right now, so I’m not sure Girardi would want to go here.

Cleveland Indians (Terry Francona) – No chance. Francona is beloved in the organization.

Colorado Rockies (Bud Black) – No. Black had a great first season with the club, steering them to an unexpected wild card spot. Girardi did play here for a few years, however.

Detroit Tigers (Ron Gardenhire) – No. Gardenhire was just named manager, and the Tigers are at the beginning of a rebuild.

Houston Astros (A.J. Hinch) – No. They’re in the World Series now.

Kansas City Royals (Ned Yost) – Probably not. The Royals will need to do some rebuilding, and while Joe Girardi has one World Series win, so does Ned Yost.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (Mike Scioscia) – Doubtful. They haven’t played well lately, but Scioscia appears to be buddies with owner Arte Moreno; several GMs have come and gone but Scioscia stays around.

Los Angeles Dodgers (Dave Roberts) – No. They’re in the World Series, too.

Miami Marlins (Don Mattingly) – Doubtful. Girardi managed here before he went to the Yankees, only to be canned by impulsive then-owner Jeffrey Loria. Also, how would Girardi adjust to having one of his former players (Derek Jeter) being his boss?

Minnesota Twins (Paul Molitor) – Probably not. Minnesota had a surprise wild card this year.

Milwaukee Brewers (Craig Counsell) – No. The Brewers exceeded expectations this year, and Counsell is well liked, plus he has a long history with the franchise.

New York Mets (Mickey Callaway) – No. Callaway was hired earlier this week. (Bad timing, Mets.)

Oakland Athletics (Bob Melvin) – Absolutely. Bob Melvin hasn’t shown much as manager so far. Not sure if Billy Beane could meet Girardi’s price tag, however.
Philadelphia Phillies (vacant) – Back up the Brinks truck. The Phillies have an up-and-coming team, and it wouldn’t be far for Girardi to move. I don’t think they’ll do it, but it’s the best match.
Pittsburgh Pirates (Clint Hurdle) – No. I think Hurdle just signed an extension; he seems to have a good relationship with GM Neal Huntington.

St. Louis Cardinals (Mike Matheny) – Yes. Matheny just signed an extension, but his in-game skills have been questioned over the years, and the Cardinals have been slipping the past few years despite having a pile of prospects. I wouldn’t be surprised if Girardi waits for this job, which is among baseball’s best.

San Diego Padres (Andy Green) – No. I’ve heard nothing but good things about Green.
San Francisco Giants (Bruce Bochy) – No. Girardi may have won a World Series, but Bochy has won three.

Seattle Mariners (Scott Servais) – Yes. The Mariners were a disappointment this year, and Servais hasn’t shown much in two years. This is another one that Girardi may wait on.

Tampa Bay Rays (Kevin Cash) – Unlikely. The Rays seem to like Cash, and the market’s kind of small, so I don’t think they could afford Girardi.
Texas Rangers (Jeff Banister) – Unlikely. Banister seems to be popular with Texas, and he brought them to an unexpected wild card in 2016.

Toronto Blue Jays (John Gibbons) – Possible. The Jays were a disappointment last year, which might be more the fault of the front office than Gibbons, but he could still take the fall.
Washington Nationals (vacant) – Absoutely, but… the Nationals are notorious cheapskates when it comes to hiring managers. They backed out of hiring Bud Black after he wouldn’t agree to being lowballed, and three of their last four managers were considered somewhat washed up (Jim Riggleman, Davey Johnson, Dusty Baker), with the other being Matt Williams, a rookie manager who didn’t work out. I can’t see Girardi coming here.

So Who Hasn't Signed Yet? The Hitters

I mean to get to this yesterday; sorry.  Here are the as-yet-unsigned hitters, and we’re now halfway into spring training.  So they’d better find something soon.

No catchers are unsigned.

Infielders

• David Freese – Of all the guys that haven’t gotten a contract, to me this is the real headscratcher.  He’s the youngest of the position players (32), and he hit a reasonable .257/.323/.420 last year with the Angels.  He’s not going to set the world on fire, but he’s a reasonable option.  I’m guessing the contenders have better choices, and the rebuilding teams are saving their money.  I’m assuming Sandy Alderson, the Mets’ GM, has his agent on speed dial in case/when David Wright gets hurt again. 
• Corey Hart – He may be done.  He’s had a ton of injuries the last couple of years (missed all of 2013, just 57 plate appearances last year with Pittsburgh).  Still, he slugged over .500 three years in a row from 2010-2012, so an American League team in need of a right-handed DH could take a chance on him.
• Justin Morneau – Another guy who may be done, primarily due to concussions.  He stands a good chance of going into management if that’s the case.
• Dan Uggla – Almost definitely done.  He’s 36, he’s been under the Mendoza line the last three years, and the only position he plays is second base (and he doesn’t play that particularly well). 

Outfielders

• Marlon Byrd – Another guy who could be useful as a righty bat/DH/good guy to have around the clubhouse, even though he’s 38.  Hit .247/.290/.453 in 544 plate appearances between the Reds and the Giants last year, so it’s a bit odd he’s not with somebody right now.
• Nate McLouth – Probably done.  He missed all of 2015 after undergoing surgery on his shoulder, and hit .173/.280/.237 in 162 plate appearances with the Nationals in 2014, so I doubt there’s much of a market for him; it would be just as easy to pay a veteran minor leaguer the MLB minimum.
• Alex Rios – his OPS numbers the last four years:  .850, .756, .709, .640.  Apparently no one’s interested in finding out what the next number in that sequence will be.
• Grady Sizemore – He’s only 33, but he missed all of 2012-2013 and most of 2010-2011 due to injury, so he’s probably older in baseball years.  Did hit .257/.318/.429 with the Rays last year after Philadelphia dropped him, but he can really only play left and right field at this point, which hurts his value.