Thursday, November 2, 2017

Justin Upton Re-Signs With Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Welcome to the first day of the Hot Stove League (also known as the time period between the end of the World Series and the day pitchers and catchers report). The California/Anaheim/Los Angeles Angels (they've used all of those geographic locations in their name, despite being in the same stadium the last half century) are the first team off the block, signing Justin Upton to a five-year extension for a reported $106 million over the next five years. The good news for the Angels is, according to the Los Angeles Times, there's some payroll flexibility early in the contract, as his salary will be $16 million next year and $18 million in 2019, which will give them the opportunity to find some help in the infield (where they need it). The bad news is he'll be paid a whopping $28 million in 2022, when he turns 35 years old and Angel fans will be wondering why they inked the deal. (Good news, Angel fans: by 2022 Albert Pujols' contact will have finally ended.)

Upton had a very good year in 2017, splitting time between the Angels and the Detroit Tigers (Detroit dealt him August 31 for Grayson Long and Elvin Rodriguez; both of them might make the deal work for the Tigers.) Baseball Reference had Upton at 5.2 WAR (wins over replacement player) overall last season, which was his best season since 2011 with the Arizona Diamondbacks (he put up a 6.1 WAR that year and finished fourth in the MVP voting). He's now been in the league for 11 seasons, having made his debut with the Diamondbacks at age 19. The only thing that would worry me from a fan's standpoint is he's been inconsistent - since that 2011 season he's averaged about 3.45 WAR per season, but he's been anywhere from 2.0 to 5.2 WAR during that time - is he going to age gracefully, or fall off a cliff?

Jeff Joiner at SB Nation's Halos Heaven blog wasn't expecting Upton back as of last week, and felt the money could be better used elsewhere, and I get his point - the Angels desperately need a second baseman, unless they think Kaleb Cowart is going to step up. There really aren't many great free agent options (do the Angels really want to spend a pile of money on another guy in his mid-30s?), and the trade options aren't much better, so maybe they'll try working from within.

They also might expect at least one of the guys returning at the three corners beside Upton (C.J. Cron, Luis Valbuena, Kole Calhoun) to move back up next year, as all three were over 60 OPS points below their 2016 levels. Most importantly, Mike Trout should play a full season next year (he missed 48 games in 2017), and remember, he'll still be just 26.