Friday, November 13, 2009

We Just Want a Hit

It's frustrating enough the Mets can't develop good hitters. I'm not even sure they know what one is.


When Derek Jeter was making his chase toward the Yankees' all-time hit record earlier this year, three things stuck out for me:

1) this was an awful lot of coverage for a team hit record. I mean, would anyone on the Kansas City Royals or Milwaukee Brewers get the same amount of coverage?
2) a radio announcer said Jeter had a chance to break Pete Rose's all-time hit record, which I initially dismissed, reviewed, and revised my opinion (more on that some other time);
3) the Mets' all-time hit leader is still Ed Kranepool.

Actually, I knew about that one a long time ago. In Bill James' 1992 Baseball Book, his notes on the Mets stated the Mets' all-time hitting records, even considering they're an adolescent franchise, were disgraceful. "Ed Kranepool, for Chrissakes, is the all-time Mets hit leader. And no one's chasing him." Well, that was 18 years ago, and the situation's still the same.

The problem is not Ed Kranepool's fault – hey, he got the maximum out of his limited abilities, and played for the team for 19 seasons – it's the Mets' fault for their inability to develop hitters. I put together a list of the 100 players with the most hits that have played since the Mets started business in 1962 (so Stan Musial, who retired after the 1963 season, is on this list, while Ted Williams, who retired in 1960, is not), and added the team that developed the player. (For the most part, that's the team for whom the player toiled in the minors, although I've made a couple of exceptions -- Roberto Clemente, for example, would likely never have played for the Dodgers, but the Pittsburgh Pirates saw something and drafted him away.)

Of the 30 teams now playing, only the four most recent expansion teams -- the Colorado Rockies, Florida Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Tampa Bay Rays -- and the Mets are the only teams with nobody on the list.

1. Pete Rose, Cincinnati Reds
2. Hank Aaron, Atlanta (Milwaukee) Braves
3. Stan Musial, St. Louis Cardinals
4. Carl Yastrzemski, Boston Red Sox
5. Paul Molitor, Milwaukee Brewers
6. Willie Mays, San Francisco (New York) Giants
7. Eddie Murray, Baltimore Orioles
8. Cal Ripken, Baltimore Orioles
9. George Brett, Kansas City Royals
10. Robin Yount, Milwaukee Brewers

11. Tony Gwynn, San Diego Padres
12. Dave Winfield, San Diego Padres
13. Craig Biggio, Houston Astros
14. Rickey Henderson, Oakland Athletics
15. Rod Carew, Minnesota Twins
16. Lou Brock, Chicago Cubs
17. Rafael Palmeiro, Chicago Cubs
18. Wade Boggs, Boston Red Sox
19. Al Kaline, Detroit Tigers
20. Roberto Clemente, Pittsburgh Pirates

21. Frank Robinson, Cincinnati Reds
22. Barry Bonds, Pittsburgh Pirates
23. Harold Baines, Chicago White Sox
24. Brooks Robinson, Baltimore Orioles
25. Andre Dawson, Montreal Expos
26. Ken Griffey Jr., Seattle Mariners
27. Vada Pinson, Cincinnati Reds
28. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
29. Al Oliver, Pittsburgh Pirates
30. Tony Perez, Cincinnati Reds

31. Roberto Alomar, San Diego Padres
32. Rusty Staub, Houston Astros
33. Bill Buckner, Los Angeles Dodgers
34. Dave Parker, Pittsburgh Pirates
35. Ivan Rodriguez, Texas Rangers
36. Billy Williams, Chicago Cubs
37. Omar Vizquel, Seattle Mariners
38. Gary Sheffield, Milwaukee Brewers
39. Luis Aparicio, Chicago White Sox
40. Nellie Fox, Oakland (Philadelphia?) Athletics

41. Tim Raines, Montreal Expos
42. Steve Garvey, Los Angeles Dodgers
43. Luis Gonzalez, Houston Astros
44. Julio Franco, Texas Rangers
45. Reggie Jackson, Oakland (Kansas City) Athletics
46. Ernie Banks, Chicago Cubs
47. Richie Ashburn, Philadelphia Phillies
48. Willie Davis, Los Angeles Dodgers
49. Steve Finley, Baltimore Orioles
50. Alex Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners

51. Joe Morgan, Houston Astros
52. Buddy Bell, Cleveland Indians
53. Garrett Anderson, Los Angeles (California) Angels of Anaheim
54. Manny Ramirez, Cleveland Indians
55. Fred McGriff, Toronto Blue Jays
56. Ted Simmons, St. Louis Cardinals
57. Frank Thomas, Chicago White Sox
58. Jeff Kent, Toronto Blue Jays
59. Ozzie Smith, San Diego Padres
60. Jim Rice, Boston Red Sox

61. Red Schoendienst, St. Louis Cardinals
62. Dwight Evans, Boston Red Sox
63. Mark Grace, Chicago Cubs
64. Kenny Lofton, Cleveland Indians
65. Johnny Damon, Kansas City Royals
66. Mickey Mantle, New York Yankees
67. Sammy Sosa, Texas Rangers
68. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves
69. Ryne Sandberg, Philadelphia Phillies
70. Chili Davis, San Francisco Giants

71. Brett Butler, Atlanta Braves
72. Lou Whitaker, Detroit Tigers
73. Alan Trammell, Detroit Tigers
74. Carlton Fisk, Boston Red Sox
75. Orlando Cepeda, San Francisco (New York) Giants
76. Joe Torre, Atlanta (Milwaukee) Braves
77. Barry Larkin, Cincinnati Red
78. Bernie Williams, New York Yankees
79. Andres Galarraga, Montreal Expos
80. Dave Concepcion, Cincinnati Reds

81. B.J. Surhoff, Milwaukee Brewers
82. Eddie Matthews, Atlanta (Boston?) Braves
83. Jeff Bagwell, Boston Red Sox
84. Kirby Puckett, Minnesota Twins
85. Gary Gaetti, Minnesota Twins
86. Tony Fernandez, Toronto Blue Jays
87. Willie McGee, St. Louis Cardinals
88. Ron Santo, Chicago Cubs
89. Marquis Grissom, Montreal Expos
90. Jose Cruz, St. Louis Cardinals

91. Vladimir Guerrero, Montreal Expos
92. Bert Campaneris, Oakland (Kansas City) Athletics
93. Edgar Martinez, Seattle Mariners
94. John Olerud, Toronto Blue Jays
95. Mike Schmidt, Philadelphia Phillies
96. Willie Stargell, Pittsburgh Pirates
97. Graig Nettles, Minnesota Twins
98. Darrell Evans, Atlanta Braves
99. Willie McCovey, San Francisco Giants
100. Willie Randolph, Pittsburgh Pirates

The player with the most hits the Mets developed is Ken Singleton, who had just over 2,000 hits. (Of course, he only played a little over one season for the team before he was traded away.)

Speaking of Singleton, note this is the organization that developed the hitter. He may have been traded away after before his career got in gear (that's why Lou Brock is listed as a Chicago Cub, much to the embarrassment of fans here).

The interesting thing is no team has more than six players on the list, and all but two of the other 25 teams has at least three (Kansas City has two, and the Angels one). A bunch of teams are tied with six: Atlanta, Boston, the Cubs, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh.

Now, the Mets have 14 players who played for them at one time or another one the list. (No big deal, the Yankees have 13.) They are:

#6 - Willie Mays
#7 - Eddie Murray
#14 - Rickey Henderson
#31 - Roberto Alomar
#32 - Rusty Staub
#38 - Gary Sheffield
#44 - Julio Franco
#47 - Richie Ashburn
#58 - Jeff Kent
#71 - Brett Butler
#76 - Joe Torre
#86 - Tony Fernandez
#94 - John Olerud
#100 - Willie Randolph

Notice something here? With the exceptions of Staub, Kent, and Olerud, all of these players were Mets when their careers were circling the drain. (I suppose you could make an argument for Eddie Murray or Tony Fernandez.) The Mets seem to have a habit of getting great hitters at the tail end of their careers, and in some cases were surprised when they had very little left. Compare this to the Yankees, who not only have their three homegrown guys (Jeter, Mickey Mantle, and Bernie Williams), but almost every other player who played for them on this list that they picked up along the way was at or near peak: Dave Winfield, Gary Sheffield, Reggie Jackson, Alex Rodriguez, Johnny Damon, and so on.

Okay, that part is what it is. The question is, what can the Mets do about the future?

1) Focus on developing hitters. Gee, that seems obvious. But it's clearly been a problem -- it's one thing to have developed great hitters and trade them away, but the situation is worse for the Mets, in that they're not developing anyone. The organization has been extant for nearly 50 years; by this time they should know how to scout and choose good hitters.
2) Keep the good players. The roster of bad trades the Mets have made is legendary: Amos Otis for Joe Foy, Nolan Ryan for Jim Fregosi, Rick Aguilera and Kevin Tapani for Frank Viola, Melvin Mora for Mike Bordick, Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano. Most of these trades have been similar: a bunch of young guys for a (semi-)established star. (I will say the Johan Santana trade has worked out quite well, so it's not foolproof.) I'm happy to say David Wright and Jose Reyes, who both have just under a thousand hits apiece, are both signed to long-term contracts -- Wright through 2012, Reyes through next year, with club options for both. Carlos Beltran, who should appear on this list in a year or two, is also signed through 2011.
3) Don't fall in love with free agent hitters older than 32. This is a failing of GM Omar Minaya, who, now that he has money to spend (he didn't when he was Montreal's GM), spends it. Of the "circling the drain" players listed above, excluding Julio Franco (who was acquired strictly to pinch-hit and carried minimal expectations), the only player younger than 32 was Tony Fernandez (who put up his career-worst numbers in a Met uniform). The others ranged in age from 34 (Alomar) to 41 (Mays). Picking up hitters at that age and expecting them to perform as they have is not a winning strategy. Pitchers will occasionally put up good seasons at that age, but hitters peak in their late 20s (throwing out the steroid years), and start falling off gradually from age 30 on. That's why, if the Mets had the choice between Matt Holliday and Jason Bay, all other things being equal, Holliday would be the better choice, as he's two years younger. But a better choice would be to find someone younger still, if they can.

By the way, the Mets once had Jason Bay as a minor leaguer. They traded him away

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