2010 Major League Baseball Predictions

American League East

1. New York Yankees
2. Tampa Bay Rays*
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Toronto Blue Jays

Yankees are too strong to fail much, unless the injury wave from Queens moves to the Bronx. Rays had a lot of things go wrong last year; that will change (the asterisk means I think they'll win the wild card). Red Sox and Rays are probably about even, but the Sox are carrying a couple of vets they shouldn't play, but will. Orioles will be a lot better in two years.

American League Central

1. Minnesota Twins
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Cleveland Indians

If it weren't for Minnesota, every team in the Central would be hard-pressed to win 75 games. Cleveland may be especially bad; I don't see any future among the pitching staff at all.

American League West

1. Anaheim Angels who claim they're from Los Angeles
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Texas Rangers
4. Oakland Athletics

Angels appear hard to beat; the Mariners may take a half-step back this year. Texas will let Ron Washington go by June 1. A's will be a lot better if they get some bats; the pitching is young and good.

National League East
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves*
3. New York Mets
4. Florida Marlins
5. Washington Nationals

Phillies have had as much good fortune with injuries as Mets have had bad -- six of their eight position players were in 155 or more games last year (only LF Raul Ibanez and C Carlos Ruiz didn't make the cut). Braves will overachieve for Bobby Cox's last season. Mets will continue to struggle; they needed to add another starting pitcher this winter and didn't. Marlins will come up short and get rid of a lot of players because they're the cheapest team around. Nationals need two or three years to get out of the hole ex-GM Jim Bowden placed them.

National League Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Houston Astros

Cards still look like the class of the division unless Carpenter and Wainwright both go down. Cubs could take the division if everything goes right. Reds have a lot of young talent, but they're short on pitching and Dusty Baker ruins young arms anyway. Brewers will let Ken Macha go by July 1. Pirates are finally putting together a plan; they'll avoid 90 losses for the first time in years. Astros will be awful for the next five seasons.

National League West
1. Colorado Rockies
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Diego Padres

Rockies will be the best of the NL for the next few seasons. Dodgers are messed up due to their owners' divorce, and Manny Ramirez is starting to show his age. Giants need hitting, Diamondbacks need hitting, Padres need everything.

AL Champion: New York Yankees
NL Champion: Colorado Rockies

World Series Champion: Colorado Rockies

One to Root For

The Kane County Cougars, a lower-division Class A team that's part of the Oakland Athletics farm system, plays about 35 minutes from my house. We try to go to a few games a year. There are a few independent league teams closer than they are, but I don't really see the point of going to those games over the Cougars -- independent leagues, with a couple of exceptions, are primarily populated by players who are has-beens, never-will-bes, might-have-beens, weres, and jerks. You go to a Cougars game, you'll see at least a couple of guys who will be on the major league roster in a few years. (I specifically recall seeing Joe Blanton, now a starting pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies, toss a pretty good game around 2002 or 2003.)

Anyway, Danny and I were at a game last year, with the Cougars taking on the West Michigan Whitecaps, who play near Grand Rapids and are a Detroit Tiger farm team. The thing I noticed was about 10 or 12 people next to us -- cheering wildly when the opposing pitcher did anything well. This rarely happens at minor league games. I mean, it's not a criminal offense or anything at Cougar games (I can't say the same for Cub or Yankee games), but it's a surprise.

So in the second inning, I finally asked the woman next to me, "I gather you know him?" Turned out she was his aunt, the attractive young woman behind me was his girlfriend, and his mom was there too. His name was Casey Crosby, and he grew up in Sugar Grove, IL, about five or ten minutes from the park. This had to have been a great thrill for the family.

Also nerve-wracking. As his aunt explained, he'd had Tommy John surgery the year before and missed the entire season. So the Tigers were keeping him on a very, very tight pitch count. He wound up pitching only four innings (I think he gave up a couple of walks), but didn't allow any runs. And I did notice he had pretty good velocity. So I tried to remember his name.

Well, turns out he's quite a prospect. My Athlon 2010 magazine lists him as one of the top prospects in the Tigers system, as does Baseball Prospectus, which notes 1) he was dominant once he got his control back, and 2) he could be turned into a reliever to save strain on his arm (think Kerry Wood).

So remember the name. His family was very nice, and you like to see the good guys make it.