American League East
1. New York Yankees
2. Tampa Bay Rays*
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Toronto Blue Jays
Yankees are too strong to fail much, unless the injury wave from Queens moves to the Bronx. Rays had a lot of things go wrong last year; that will change (the asterisk means I think they'll win the wild card). Red Sox and Rays are probably about even, but the Sox are carrying a couple of vets they shouldn't play, but will. Orioles will be a lot better in two years.
American League Central
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Cleveland Indians
If it weren't for Minnesota, every team in the Central would be hard-pressed to win 75 games. Cleveland may be especially bad; I don't see any future among the pitching staff at all.
American League West
1. Anaheim Angels who claim they're from Los Angeles
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Texas Rangers
4. Oakland Athletics
Angels appear hard to beat; the Mariners may take a half-step back this year. Texas will let Ron Washington go by June 1. A's will be a lot better if they get some bats; the pitching is young and good.
National League East
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves*
3. New York Mets
4. Florida Marlins
5. Washington Nationals
Phillies have had as much good fortune with injuries as Mets have had bad -- six of their eight position players were in 155 or more games last year (only LF Raul Ibanez and C Carlos Ruiz didn't make the cut). Braves will overachieve for Bobby Cox's last season. Mets will continue to struggle; they needed to add another starting pitcher this winter and didn't. Marlins will come up short and get rid of a lot of players because they're the cheapest team around. Nationals need two or three years to get out of the hole ex-GM Jim Bowden placed them.
National League Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Houston Astros
Cards still look like the class of the division unless Carpenter and Wainwright both go down. Cubs could take the division if everything goes right. Reds have a lot of young talent, but they're short on pitching and Dusty Baker ruins young arms anyway. Brewers will let Ken Macha go by July 1. Pirates are finally putting together a plan; they'll avoid 90 losses for the first time in years. Astros will be awful for the next five seasons.
National League West
1. Colorado Rockies
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Diego Padres
Rockies will be the best of the NL for the next few seasons. Dodgers are messed up due to their owners' divorce, and Manny Ramirez is starting to show his age. Giants need hitting, Diamondbacks need hitting, Padres need everything.
AL Champion: New York Yankees
NL Champion: Colorado Rockies
World Series Champion: Colorado Rockies
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