1. Milwaukee – Prince Fielder (.299 AVG / .566 SLG / .415 OBP / .981 OPS / .385 SEC)
Fielder had an outstanding year. And, of course, he’s due to be a free agent this winter. I would be slightly more interested in him than Albert Pujols – if the contract is for four years or less. He’s 27 right now, so he should be in the middle of his peak years – but he’s also overweight, and heavy first basemen over 30 tend to go downhill very fast (Mo Vaughn, Boog Powell, Kent Hrbek, and, well, Cecil Fielder). The other option is Fielder could DH – the New York Daily News just ran a column suggesting this option for the Yankees, and given they're set at first base and Fielder's name does not correlate to his skills with a glove, it's not a bad idea – but that’s not going to make him any thinner.
2. Cincinnati – Joey Votto (.309 AVG / .531 SLG / .416 OBP / .947 OPS / .347 SEC)
This is an off year compared to Votto’s 2010 season, but on a par with 2009. He’s signed with the Reds for the next two years (although he’s actually eight months older than Fielder, even though Fielder came up two years earlier), and he’ll definitely be a better value to the Reds than Fielder will be in the future.
3. St. Louis – Albert Pujols (.299 AVG / .541 SLG / .366 OBP / .906 OPS / .328 SEC)
You can tell there are a lot of good first basemen in the NL when Albert Pujols finishes third in the rankings. That aside, I would find it very questionable that he goes anywhere this year, even though that’s the big story after the World Series ends. The only team that would throw a ridiculous amount of money at him is the Yankees, who already have Mark Teixeira at first base. Pujols turns 32 next January (Teixeira’s seven months younger), and is starting to show minor signs of slippage – he had 29 doubles last year and 37 home runs (never a good sign to have more two-baggers than homers). I wouldn’t be surprised if he stays put.
4. Colorado – Todd Helton/Jason Giambi (.292 AVG / .498 SLG / .378 OBP / .876 OPS / .303 SEC)
Helton has seemingly been going downhill and on the DL for the last decade, but he put up an .850 OPS in 491 plate appearances, so he’s not through yet. He takes a lot of walks, still has a little power, and is a clubhouse leader. Giambi has made a post-steroids career out of being a belting pinch-hitter and backup to Helton, and put up a .950 OPS in 152 plate appearances. Colorado’s likely to stand pat here.
5. Philadelphia – Ryan Howard (.253 AVG / .488 SLG / .346 OBP / .835 OPS / .328 SEC)
Howard’s slowed down a little over the last couple of years to fall out of the top tier, but he’s likely extended his career. Since 2008, he’s lost 35 pounds, going from 275 to 240. So he’s lost a little power, but he’s less likely to succumb to the issues Prince Fielder is facing right now. Of course, having just torn his Achilles in the playoffs, he has his own issues.
6. New York Mets – Daniel Murphy/Lucas Duda/Nick Evans/Ike Davis (.298 AVG / .462 SLG / .359 OBP / .821 OPS / .238 SEC)
Surprising to see the Mets this high. Davis started the season at first base, had a great six weeks (.925 OPS), hurt his ankle, and missed the rest of the year. If he can come back at full strength next year, he goes back to first, since he’s also a good fielder. Daniel Murphy took over for the most part (he also played second and third, and was taken out for the year for the second year running on a play at second), and hit .320 with an .809 OPS. He’s a brutal fielder at second and the outfield and passable at first and third, but he could go back to first if Davis isn’t ready to go. Duda will likely play right field next year (.852 OPS) – unless Davis isn’t ready, in which case he’s back in the first base picture. Evans will struggle to maintain his spot in the bigs (.718 OPS – he really doesn’t hit right-handed pitching very well).
7. Chicago Cubs – Carlos Pena (.225 AVG / .462 SLG / .357 OBP / .819 OPS / .370 SEC)
Pena doesn’t hit for much of an average, but takes piles of walks (thus an OPS behind the Mets’ group but a secondary average well above). However, he took a one-year deal to be with the Cubs, and he may wind up the beneficiary of a desperate team after the Pujols/Fielder situation shakes out.
8. Atlanta – Freddie Freeman (.282 AVG / .448 SLG / .346 OBP / .795 OPS / .244 SEC)
I had Freeman on my fantasy team, and he really didn’t impress me all that much – he doesn’t have that much power, and doesn’t get on base a lot. He could pick up over the next few years, but he doesn’t look like the next Joey Votto to me.
9. Washington – Michael Morse/Adam LaRoche/Chris Marrero (.270 AVG / .458 SLG / .336 OBP / .793 OPS / .254 SEC)
Adam LaRoche started out 2011 as the Nationals’ first baseman, but got hurt quickly. Morse picked up the position and ran with it (.910 OPS), so now the job’s his, even though he’s not exactly an acrobat in the field. LaRoche becomes trade bait, if they can find anyone foolish enough to pick up his $8 million salary for 2012.
10. Florida – Gaby Sanchez (.266 AVG / .427 SLG / .352 OBP / .779 OPS / .262 SEC)
Sanchez isn’t exactly setting the world on fire, but he’ll do until someone better comes along. Logan Morrison could be his main competition down the road, assuming the Marlins don’t decide he’s too much of a pain in the rear to keep around.
11. Houston – Brett Wallace/Carlos Lee (.269 AVG / .418 SLG / .339 OBP / .757 OPS / .232 SEC)
Brett Wallace was the big acquisition for the Astros in 2010 (coming in the Roy Oswalt deal), although some kind soul might have said, “Hey, St. Louis, Oakland, and now Toronto have decided to trade him, so is he really that good?” Apparently not. Wallace (.703 OPS) was sent back to AAA in August, and the Astros moved Carlos Lee to first – which makes you wonder if there are any functioning parts in the upper managements’ heads. It’s not like had anything left to prove at AAA, or that anyone thought Lee would be a significant part of Houston’s future success. Yes, Lee is better suited at this point to play first base (actually, he’s better suited at this point to play the Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man in a Ghostbusters remake), but why move him to first weeks after you’ve traded away your other two starting outfielders?
12. Los Angeles Dodgers – James Loney (.288 AVG / .416 SLG / .339 OBP / .755 OPS / .199 SEC)
Loney has regressed enough for the Dodgers to understand he’s not the long-term solution at first base, unless they want to duplicate the offensive prowess of Wes Parker. Problem is, I don’t know if they have any better solutions around, so he may stay another year or two.
13. Pittsburgh – Lyle Overbay / Derrek Lee / Garrett Jones (.248 AVG / .417 SLG / .321 OBP / .738 OPS / .255 SEC)
Overbay was brought in on a one-year deal for 2011, and didn’t hit. Lee came over from Baltimore at the trade deadline, and while he played well when he played, he also spent time on the DL. Jones filled in here and in the outfield. This is a challenge for the Pirates – they’d probably love to have Lee back on a cheap one-year deal, but I don’t know if they can get that done.
14. Arizona – Juan Miranda / Xavier Nady / Paul Goldschmidt (.237 AVG / .407 SLG / .310 OBP / .717 OPS / .255 SEC)
Up front, Goldschmidt is the future here – he’s 23 years old, had an .808 OPS in limited playing time, and hit well in the NLDS. Miranda and Nady are the past – heck, they may have already been lopped off the roster.
15. San Francisco – Brandon Belt / Aubrey Huff (.240 AVG / .381 SLG / .306 OBP / .687 OPS / .226 SEC)
Yikes. The Giants tried to promote Belt, but given 2010 was his first year of professional baseball, it’s not a shock he didn’t hit very well. (I think he was also on the disabled list for a time.) The question going into 2011 for the Giants was whether Huff’s bad 2009 season was an aberration, or his wonderful 2010 season was – and, well, now they know. Unfortunately, they’ll be paying Huff $10 million in 2012 and a likely $2 million buyout in 2013 for having guessed wrong.
16. San Diego – Jesus Guzman / Brad Hawpe / Jorge Cantu / Anthony Rizzo (.235 AVG / .360 SLG / .303 OBP / .663 OPS / .216 SEC)
Bad sign for San Diego when their first basemen combine for numbers around the same as a below-league average second baseman. The consolation is that Hawpe and Cantu are either gone or will be shortly, and Guzman was pretty good in limited playing time (.847 OPS, best on the Padres). The bad news is Rizzo was one of the big prizes in the Adrian Gonzalez trade, and he was horrendous (.504 OPS). But if he plays first base, Guzman has to play elsewhere – and he’s been a butcher in the minors at most other positions (he’s been around for a few years, knocking around AAA in the Oakland and San Francisco systems). Still, with as few bats as the Padres have, they have to find a spot for a good hitter somewhere.
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
Thursday, October 6, 2011
National League Catcher Rankings, 2011
Third year in a row I’m starting this. I’ll do my best to finish this year.
Key:
AVG – batting average (hits/times at bat)
SLG – slugging percentage (total bases/times at bat)
OBP – on-base percentage (hits + walks + times hit by pitch/total plate appearances)
OPS – slugging percentage + on-base percentage
SEC – secondary average (extra bases + walks + stolen bases/at-bats + walks)
NL Catchers
1. Arizona – Miguel Montero/Henry Blanco (.277 AVG / .481 SLG / .348 OBP / .828 OPS / .278 SEC)
Montero took a step up this year, and is pretty much neck-and-neck for the best catcher in the league with Atlanta’s Brian McCann. Blanco actually improved upon Montero’s numbers (Montero - .820 OPS, Blanco - .870), but Blanco’s also 39 years old and unlikely to hit eight home runs in a hundred at-bats again next year.
2. Atlanta – Brian McCann/David Ross (.269 AVG / .456 SLG / .347 OBP / .803 OPS / .278 SEC)
As noted before, Montero and McCann had pretty much the same season in 2011 (they were tied for on-base percentage and three points apart in slugging), so much of the difference here comes down to David Ross vs. Henry Blanco as the backup. Ross’ .761 OBP would be better than all but three NL teams. This is a fine backstop duo, and the least of Atlanta’s worries.
3. St. Louis – Yadier Molina/Gerald Laird (.293 AVG / .447 SLG / .341 OBP / .788 OPS / .221 SEC)
Molina the good showed up this year, and what has sometimes been a black hole offensively turned into a positive. Unable to hold onto his starting position with a few AL teams, Laird is a competent, if unspectacular, backup.
4. Cincinnati Reds – Ramon Hernandez/Ryan Hanigan (.275 AVG / .404 SLG / .349 OBP / .753 OPS / .211 SEC)
Second straight year of pretty good catching from this duo, and possibly the last – rookie Devin Morasco’s presence means Hernandez, at age 35, is unlikely to be resigned.
5. Colorado Rockies – Chris Ianetta/Eliezer Alfonzo/Jose Morales (.246 AVG / .388 SLG / .359 OBP / .746 OPS / .278 SEC)
Ianetta did decently in his first year not platooning with Yorvit Torrealba, although what saved him is taking 70 walks. Alfonzo and Morales were standard backups, so Colorado may be in the market for a better one for 2012.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates – Ryan Doumit/Michael McKenry/Chris Snyder (.267 AVG / .405 SLG / .330 OBP / .735 OPS / .213 SEC)
Not a strength for the Pirates, but not a weakness – except when both Doumit and Snyder were hurt. McKenry (.598 OPS) simply didn’t produce as well as the others (not that a third-string catcher should be expected to do so).
7. Milwaukee Brewers – Jonathan Lucroy/George Kottaras (.262 AVG / .405 SLG / .312 OBP / .717 OPS / .203 SEC)
A middle-of-the-pack finish is actually an improvement for the Brewers. Lucroy has stabilized the catching and should be there for a few years, although Kottaras actually had slightly better offensive stats.
8. Washington Nationals – Wilson Ramos/Ivan Rodriguez/Jesus Flores (.249 AVG / .401 SLG / .312 OBP / .713 OPS / .221 SEC)
Ramos did the same for the Nationals that Lucroy has done for Milwaukee. 15 HR and 52 RBI may not seem like a lot for some teams, but it’s a big step up for the Nats. Not sure why they’ll need Ivan Rodriguez around anymore (I assume Rodriguez is trying to hang in for 3,000 hits; he’s 156 away). Flores offers nothing of note.
9. Philadelphia Phillies – Carlos Ruiz/Brian Schneider (.258 AVG / .353 SLG / .343 OBP / .696 OPS / .187 SEC)
Major drop for the Phillies from previous years. Ruiz (.754 OPS) is slightly above league average at this point, and Brian Schneider (.502 OPS) had the lowest numbers of the 38 catchers on this list. When you’re hitting less than the Cubs’ Koyie Hill, that’s saying something. I don’t expect Schneider to be back next year.
10. San Diego Padres – Nick Hundley/Rob Johnson/Kyle Phillips (.239 AVG / .386 SLG / .305 OBP / .691 OPS / .219 SEC)
This can be broken down in two parts. Nick Hundley (.824 OPS), when he was healthy, was at the same level as Miguel Montero and Brian McCann. However, he only had 308 plate appearances. Johnson (.544 OPS) and Phillips (.548) were unsatisfactory replacements. So the Pads have to keep Hundley healthy and find more competent backups.
11. Florida Marlins – John Buck/Brett Hayes (.228 AVG / .378 SLG / .311 OBP / .688 OPS / .233 SEC)
You could see this one coming. Buck had a career year in 2009 with Kansas City (.802 OPS), so Florida gave him a three-year contract. In 2010, he regressed to his previous level (.683 OPS), which meant his backup actually outhit him slightly. But now they have Buck for two more years, which means Hayes either stays the backup and the Fish lose some of his most valuable years (he’s now 27), or they flip them and Buck becomes a very expensive reserve.
12. New York Mets – Josh Thole/Ronny Paulino (.268 AVG / .347 SLG / .332 OBP / .6791 OPS / .158 SEC)
Let’s face it, Thole was a disappointment this year. He didn’t hit the way the Mets expected, and had some issues behind the plate (although he’s not as bad a catcher as his critics claim). Paulino did nothing special, and I would say he’s not coming back except the Mets really need him to hit lefties, because Thole can’t.
13. Chicago Cubs – Geovany Soto/Koyie Hill (.220 AVG / .378 SLG / .300 OBP / .6785 SLG / .241 SEC)
Soto had a down year last year (he seems to alternate them) and didn’t take as many walks as he did in 2009. Hill has never hit (.545 OPS last year, .573 lifetime), and really should be an emergency guy stashed at AAA only, or a coach.
14. Los Angeles Dodgers – Rod Barajas/Dioner Navarro (.216 AVG / .391 SLG / .283 OBP / .674 OPS / .241 SEC)
Barajas performed as well as he was expected to – some home run power, no batting average, no walks, average defense. Navarro was traded from the Dodgers to the Rays a few years back with the reputation as a great prospect; he came back this year as a backup catcher, and that’s what he remains.
15. San Francisco Giants – Eli Whiteside/Buster Posey/Chris Stewart (.225 AVG / .333 SLG / .302 OBP / .635 OPS / .195 SEC)
I noted in this space last year that if Buster Posey got hurt the Giants would be in serious trouble – and, well, I’m sorry to say I was right. Posey was taken out for the year in a home-plate collision, and Whiteside and Stewart struggled in his stead. In fairness, Posey was only slightly above league average even before his injury, but his exit for the season put a major hurt on the Giants’ chance to repeat.
16. Houston Astros – Humberto Quintero/Carlos Corporan/J.R. Towles (.211 AVG / .293 SLG / .256 OBP / .549 OPS / .128 SEC)
Good Lord, Houston, isn’t it time to get a catcher that can hit? You’ve been in existence now for 50 years, and you’ve had a grand total, to my knowledge, of three catchers with more than 400 plate appearances who’ve put up a single-season OPS of .800 or better (Joe Ferguson in 1977, Alan Ashby in 1987, and Mitch Meluskey in 2000). That’s horrendous. Seriously, there’s no hope here for the future: Jason Castro, who missed 2011 with an ACL injury, was the great hope, and he had a .574 OPS in 2010. J.R. Towles has had an astonishing career: .859 OPS in the minors, .583 with the Astros.
Key:
AVG – batting average (hits/times at bat)
SLG – slugging percentage (total bases/times at bat)
OBP – on-base percentage (hits + walks + times hit by pitch/total plate appearances)
OPS – slugging percentage + on-base percentage
SEC – secondary average (extra bases + walks + stolen bases/at-bats + walks)
NL Catchers
1. Arizona – Miguel Montero/Henry Blanco (.277 AVG / .481 SLG / .348 OBP / .828 OPS / .278 SEC)
Montero took a step up this year, and is pretty much neck-and-neck for the best catcher in the league with Atlanta’s Brian McCann. Blanco actually improved upon Montero’s numbers (Montero - .820 OPS, Blanco - .870), but Blanco’s also 39 years old and unlikely to hit eight home runs in a hundred at-bats again next year.
2. Atlanta – Brian McCann/David Ross (.269 AVG / .456 SLG / .347 OBP / .803 OPS / .278 SEC)
As noted before, Montero and McCann had pretty much the same season in 2011 (they were tied for on-base percentage and three points apart in slugging), so much of the difference here comes down to David Ross vs. Henry Blanco as the backup. Ross’ .761 OBP would be better than all but three NL teams. This is a fine backstop duo, and the least of Atlanta’s worries.
3. St. Louis – Yadier Molina/Gerald Laird (.293 AVG / .447 SLG / .341 OBP / .788 OPS / .221 SEC)
Molina the good showed up this year, and what has sometimes been a black hole offensively turned into a positive. Unable to hold onto his starting position with a few AL teams, Laird is a competent, if unspectacular, backup.
4. Cincinnati Reds – Ramon Hernandez/Ryan Hanigan (.275 AVG / .404 SLG / .349 OBP / .753 OPS / .211 SEC)
Second straight year of pretty good catching from this duo, and possibly the last – rookie Devin Morasco’s presence means Hernandez, at age 35, is unlikely to be resigned.
5. Colorado Rockies – Chris Ianetta/Eliezer Alfonzo/Jose Morales (.246 AVG / .388 SLG / .359 OBP / .746 OPS / .278 SEC)
Ianetta did decently in his first year not platooning with Yorvit Torrealba, although what saved him is taking 70 walks. Alfonzo and Morales were standard backups, so Colorado may be in the market for a better one for 2012.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates – Ryan Doumit/Michael McKenry/Chris Snyder (.267 AVG / .405 SLG / .330 OBP / .735 OPS / .213 SEC)
Not a strength for the Pirates, but not a weakness – except when both Doumit and Snyder were hurt. McKenry (.598 OPS) simply didn’t produce as well as the others (not that a third-string catcher should be expected to do so).
7. Milwaukee Brewers – Jonathan Lucroy/George Kottaras (.262 AVG / .405 SLG / .312 OBP / .717 OPS / .203 SEC)
A middle-of-the-pack finish is actually an improvement for the Brewers. Lucroy has stabilized the catching and should be there for a few years, although Kottaras actually had slightly better offensive stats.
8. Washington Nationals – Wilson Ramos/Ivan Rodriguez/Jesus Flores (.249 AVG / .401 SLG / .312 OBP / .713 OPS / .221 SEC)
Ramos did the same for the Nationals that Lucroy has done for Milwaukee. 15 HR and 52 RBI may not seem like a lot for some teams, but it’s a big step up for the Nats. Not sure why they’ll need Ivan Rodriguez around anymore (I assume Rodriguez is trying to hang in for 3,000 hits; he’s 156 away). Flores offers nothing of note.
9. Philadelphia Phillies – Carlos Ruiz/Brian Schneider (.258 AVG / .353 SLG / .343 OBP / .696 OPS / .187 SEC)
Major drop for the Phillies from previous years. Ruiz (.754 OPS) is slightly above league average at this point, and Brian Schneider (.502 OPS) had the lowest numbers of the 38 catchers on this list. When you’re hitting less than the Cubs’ Koyie Hill, that’s saying something. I don’t expect Schneider to be back next year.
10. San Diego Padres – Nick Hundley/Rob Johnson/Kyle Phillips (.239 AVG / .386 SLG / .305 OBP / .691 OPS / .219 SEC)
This can be broken down in two parts. Nick Hundley (.824 OPS), when he was healthy, was at the same level as Miguel Montero and Brian McCann. However, he only had 308 plate appearances. Johnson (.544 OPS) and Phillips (.548) were unsatisfactory replacements. So the Pads have to keep Hundley healthy and find more competent backups.
11. Florida Marlins – John Buck/Brett Hayes (.228 AVG / .378 SLG / .311 OBP / .688 OPS / .233 SEC)
You could see this one coming. Buck had a career year in 2009 with Kansas City (.802 OPS), so Florida gave him a three-year contract. In 2010, he regressed to his previous level (.683 OPS), which meant his backup actually outhit him slightly. But now they have Buck for two more years, which means Hayes either stays the backup and the Fish lose some of his most valuable years (he’s now 27), or they flip them and Buck becomes a very expensive reserve.
12. New York Mets – Josh Thole/Ronny Paulino (.268 AVG / .347 SLG / .332 OBP / .6791 OPS / .158 SEC)
Let’s face it, Thole was a disappointment this year. He didn’t hit the way the Mets expected, and had some issues behind the plate (although he’s not as bad a catcher as his critics claim). Paulino did nothing special, and I would say he’s not coming back except the Mets really need him to hit lefties, because Thole can’t.
13. Chicago Cubs – Geovany Soto/Koyie Hill (.220 AVG / .378 SLG / .300 OBP / .6785 SLG / .241 SEC)
Soto had a down year last year (he seems to alternate them) and didn’t take as many walks as he did in 2009. Hill has never hit (.545 OPS last year, .573 lifetime), and really should be an emergency guy stashed at AAA only, or a coach.
14. Los Angeles Dodgers – Rod Barajas/Dioner Navarro (.216 AVG / .391 SLG / .283 OBP / .674 OPS / .241 SEC)
Barajas performed as well as he was expected to – some home run power, no batting average, no walks, average defense. Navarro was traded from the Dodgers to the Rays a few years back with the reputation as a great prospect; he came back this year as a backup catcher, and that’s what he remains.
15. San Francisco Giants – Eli Whiteside/Buster Posey/Chris Stewart (.225 AVG / .333 SLG / .302 OBP / .635 OPS / .195 SEC)
I noted in this space last year that if Buster Posey got hurt the Giants would be in serious trouble – and, well, I’m sorry to say I was right. Posey was taken out for the year in a home-plate collision, and Whiteside and Stewart struggled in his stead. In fairness, Posey was only slightly above league average even before his injury, but his exit for the season put a major hurt on the Giants’ chance to repeat.
16. Houston Astros – Humberto Quintero/Carlos Corporan/J.R. Towles (.211 AVG / .293 SLG / .256 OBP / .549 OPS / .128 SEC)
Good Lord, Houston, isn’t it time to get a catcher that can hit? You’ve been in existence now for 50 years, and you’ve had a grand total, to my knowledge, of three catchers with more than 400 plate appearances who’ve put up a single-season OPS of .800 or better (Joe Ferguson in 1977, Alan Ashby in 1987, and Mitch Meluskey in 2000). That’s horrendous. Seriously, there’s no hope here for the future: Jason Castro, who missed 2011 with an ACL injury, was the great hope, and he had a .574 OPS in 2010. J.R. Towles has had an astonishing career: .859 OPS in the minors, .583 with the Astros.
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