1. Milwaukee – Prince Fielder (.299 AVG / .566 SLG / .415 OBP / .981 OPS / .385 SEC)
Fielder had an outstanding year. And, of course, he’s due to be a free agent this winter. I would be slightly more interested in him than Albert Pujols – if the contract is for four years or less. He’s 27 right now, so he should be in the middle of his peak years – but he’s also overweight, and heavy first basemen over 30 tend to go downhill very fast (Mo Vaughn, Boog Powell, Kent Hrbek, and, well, Cecil Fielder). The other option is Fielder could DH – the New York Daily News just ran a column suggesting this option for the Yankees, and given they're set at first base and Fielder's name does not correlate to his skills with a glove, it's not a bad idea – but that’s not going to make him any thinner.
2. Cincinnati – Joey Votto (.309 AVG / .531 SLG / .416 OBP / .947 OPS / .347 SEC)
This is an off year compared to Votto’s 2010 season, but on a par with 2009. He’s signed with the Reds for the next two years (although he’s actually eight months older than Fielder, even though Fielder came up two years earlier), and he’ll definitely be a better value to the Reds than Fielder will be in the future.
3. St. Louis – Albert Pujols (.299 AVG / .541 SLG / .366 OBP / .906 OPS / .328 SEC)
You can tell there are a lot of good first basemen in the NL when Albert Pujols finishes third in the rankings. That aside, I would find it very questionable that he goes anywhere this year, even though that’s the big story after the World Series ends. The only team that would throw a ridiculous amount of money at him is the Yankees, who already have Mark Teixeira at first base. Pujols turns 32 next January (Teixeira’s seven months younger), and is starting to show minor signs of slippage – he had 29 doubles last year and 37 home runs (never a good sign to have more two-baggers than homers). I wouldn’t be surprised if he stays put.
4. Colorado – Todd Helton/Jason Giambi (.292 AVG / .498 SLG / .378 OBP / .876 OPS / .303 SEC)
Helton has seemingly been going downhill and on the DL for the last decade, but he put up an .850 OPS in 491 plate appearances, so he’s not through yet. He takes a lot of walks, still has a little power, and is a clubhouse leader. Giambi has made a post-steroids career out of being a belting pinch-hitter and backup to Helton, and put up a .950 OPS in 152 plate appearances. Colorado’s likely to stand pat here.
5. Philadelphia – Ryan Howard (.253 AVG / .488 SLG / .346 OBP / .835 OPS / .328 SEC)
Howard’s slowed down a little over the last couple of years to fall out of the top tier, but he’s likely extended his career. Since 2008, he’s lost 35 pounds, going from 275 to 240. So he’s lost a little power, but he’s less likely to succumb to the issues Prince Fielder is facing right now. Of course, having just torn his Achilles in the playoffs, he has his own issues.
6. New York Mets – Daniel Murphy/Lucas Duda/Nick Evans/Ike Davis (.298 AVG / .462 SLG / .359 OBP / .821 OPS / .238 SEC)
Surprising to see the Mets this high. Davis started the season at first base, had a great six weeks (.925 OPS), hurt his ankle, and missed the rest of the year. If he can come back at full strength next year, he goes back to first, since he’s also a good fielder. Daniel Murphy took over for the most part (he also played second and third, and was taken out for the year for the second year running on a play at second), and hit .320 with an .809 OPS. He’s a brutal fielder at second and the outfield and passable at first and third, but he could go back to first if Davis isn’t ready to go. Duda will likely play right field next year (.852 OPS) – unless Davis isn’t ready, in which case he’s back in the first base picture. Evans will struggle to maintain his spot in the bigs (.718 OPS – he really doesn’t hit right-handed pitching very well).
7. Chicago Cubs – Carlos Pena (.225 AVG / .462 SLG / .357 OBP / .819 OPS / .370 SEC)
Pena doesn’t hit for much of an average, but takes piles of walks (thus an OPS behind the Mets’ group but a secondary average well above). However, he took a one-year deal to be with the Cubs, and he may wind up the beneficiary of a desperate team after the Pujols/Fielder situation shakes out.
8. Atlanta – Freddie Freeman (.282 AVG / .448 SLG / .346 OBP / .795 OPS / .244 SEC)
I had Freeman on my fantasy team, and he really didn’t impress me all that much – he doesn’t have that much power, and doesn’t get on base a lot. He could pick up over the next few years, but he doesn’t look like the next Joey Votto to me.
9. Washington – Michael Morse/Adam LaRoche/Chris Marrero (.270 AVG / .458 SLG / .336 OBP / .793 OPS / .254 SEC)
Adam LaRoche started out 2011 as the Nationals’ first baseman, but got hurt quickly. Morse picked up the position and ran with it (.910 OPS), so now the job’s his, even though he’s not exactly an acrobat in the field. LaRoche becomes trade bait, if they can find anyone foolish enough to pick up his $8 million salary for 2012.
10. Florida – Gaby Sanchez (.266 AVG / .427 SLG / .352 OBP / .779 OPS / .262 SEC)
Sanchez isn’t exactly setting the world on fire, but he’ll do until someone better comes along. Logan Morrison could be his main competition down the road, assuming the Marlins don’t decide he’s too much of a pain in the rear to keep around.
11. Houston – Brett Wallace/Carlos Lee (.269 AVG / .418 SLG / .339 OBP / .757 OPS / .232 SEC)
Brett Wallace was the big acquisition for the Astros in 2010 (coming in the Roy Oswalt deal), although some kind soul might have said, “Hey, St. Louis, Oakland, and now Toronto have decided to trade him, so is he really that good?” Apparently not. Wallace (.703 OPS) was sent back to AAA in August, and the Astros moved Carlos Lee to first – which makes you wonder if there are any functioning parts in the upper managements’ heads. It’s not like had anything left to prove at AAA, or that anyone thought Lee would be a significant part of Houston’s future success. Yes, Lee is better suited at this point to play first base (actually, he’s better suited at this point to play the Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man in a Ghostbusters remake), but why move him to first weeks after you’ve traded away your other two starting outfielders?
12. Los Angeles Dodgers – James Loney (.288 AVG / .416 SLG / .339 OBP / .755 OPS / .199 SEC)
Loney has regressed enough for the Dodgers to understand he’s not the long-term solution at first base, unless they want to duplicate the offensive prowess of Wes Parker. Problem is, I don’t know if they have any better solutions around, so he may stay another year or two.
13. Pittsburgh – Lyle Overbay / Derrek Lee / Garrett Jones (.248 AVG / .417 SLG / .321 OBP / .738 OPS / .255 SEC)
Overbay was brought in on a one-year deal for 2011, and didn’t hit. Lee came over from Baltimore at the trade deadline, and while he played well when he played, he also spent time on the DL. Jones filled in here and in the outfield. This is a challenge for the Pirates – they’d probably love to have Lee back on a cheap one-year deal, but I don’t know if they can get that done.
14. Arizona – Juan Miranda / Xavier Nady / Paul Goldschmidt (.237 AVG / .407 SLG / .310 OBP / .717 OPS / .255 SEC)
Up front, Goldschmidt is the future here – he’s 23 years old, had an .808 OPS in limited playing time, and hit well in the NLDS. Miranda and Nady are the past – heck, they may have already been lopped off the roster.
15. San Francisco – Brandon Belt / Aubrey Huff (.240 AVG / .381 SLG / .306 OBP / .687 OPS / .226 SEC)
Yikes. The Giants tried to promote Belt, but given 2010 was his first year of professional baseball, it’s not a shock he didn’t hit very well. (I think he was also on the disabled list for a time.) The question going into 2011 for the Giants was whether Huff’s bad 2009 season was an aberration, or his wonderful 2010 season was – and, well, now they know. Unfortunately, they’ll be paying Huff $10 million in 2012 and a likely $2 million buyout in 2013 for having guessed wrong.
16. San Diego – Jesus Guzman / Brad Hawpe / Jorge Cantu / Anthony Rizzo (.235 AVG / .360 SLG / .303 OBP / .663 OPS / .216 SEC)
Bad sign for San Diego when their first basemen combine for numbers around the same as a below-league average second baseman. The consolation is that Hawpe and Cantu are either gone or will be shortly, and Guzman was pretty good in limited playing time (.847 OPS, best on the Padres). The bad news is Rizzo was one of the big prizes in the Adrian Gonzalez trade, and he was horrendous (.504 OPS). But if he plays first base, Guzman has to play elsewhere – and he’s been a butcher in the minors at most other positions (he’s been around for a few years, knocking around AAA in the Oakland and San Francisco systems). Still, with as few bats as the Padres have, they have to find a spot for a good hitter somewhere.
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