Sunday, January 24, 2016

When I Say My Team Stinks, I Mean It - Baseball Edition





So this is why your team is good (or lousy).

I decided to crunch the numbers for all 30 MLB teams from 1960 onward, similar to what I did for the NFL a year ago.  Here are the stats:


Year
Regular Season Wins
Regular Season Losses
Regular Season Winning Pct.
95+ Win Seasons
95+ Loss Seasons

New York Yankees
4992
3925
0.5598
23
1

Los Angeles Dodgers
4798
4131
0.5374
10
1

St. Louis Cardinals
4731
4186
0.5306
10
0

Boston Red Sox
4708
4219
0.5274
11
1

Cincinnati Reds
4651
4272
0.5212
9
3

Baltimore Orioles
4637
4274
0.5204
13
7

Milwaukee/Atlanta Braves
4621
4282
0.5190
11
6

San Francisco Giants
4634
4297
0.5189
6
2

Chicago White Sox
4499
4422
0.5043
5
4

Kansas City/Oakland Athletics
4491
4438
0.5030
10
8

Los Angeles/California/Anaheim Angels
4403
4377
0.5015
5
2

Detroit Tigers
4462
4469
0.4996
6
7

Philadelphia Phillies
4425
4444
0.4989
5
10

Pittsburgh Pirates
4439
4475
0.4980
9
8

Toronto Blue Jays
3078
3115
0.4970
4
4

Washington Senators/Minnesota Twins
4430
4495
0.4964
5
5

Arizona Diamondbacks
1444
1482
0.4935
2
4

Houston Colt .45s/Astros
4206
4413
0.4880
3
9

Cleveland Indians
4344
4569
0.4874
4
6

Kansas City Royals
3623
3852
0.4847
3
9

Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals
3610
3868
0.4827
3
7

New York Mets
4128
4480
0.4796
6
13

Texas Rangers
4182
4582
0.4772
2
11

Seattle Pilots/Milwaukee Brewers
3569
3912
0.4771
3
5

Chicago Cubs
4244
4679
0.4756
3
10

Florida/Miami Marlins
1714
1944
0.4686
0
4

Seattle Mariners
2898
3295
0.4679
1
11

Colorado Rockies
1709
1955
0.4664
0
4

Tampa Bay Devil Rays/Rays
1352
1562
0.4640
2
7

San Diego Padres
3472
4016
0.4637
1
11








Year
Post-season Game Wins
Post-season Game Losses
Post-season Winning Pct.
League Champs (Pennants)
World Series Champs
Average Seasons In Playoffs
New York Yankees
138
106
0.5656
16
9
48.21%
Los Angeles Dodgers
59
67
0.4683
8
4
33.93%
St. Louis Cardinals
103
90
0.5337
10
5
33.93%
Boston Red Sox
66
66
0.5000
6
3
26.79%
Cincinnati Reds
40
36
0.5263
6
3
21.43%
Baltimore Orioles
52
39
0.5714
6
3
21.43%
Milwaukee/Atlanta Braves
63
71
0.4701
5
1
32.14%
San Francisco Giants
57
46
0.5534
6
3
19.64%
Chicago White Sox
15
14
0.5172
1
1
8.93%
Kansas City/Oakland Athletics
58
57
0.5043
6
4
32.14%
Los Angeles/California/Anaheim Angels
27
37
0.4219
1
1
18.18%
Detroit Tigers
39
37
0.5132
4
2
16.07%
Philadelphia Phillies
48
46
0.5106
5
2
21.43%
Pittsburgh Pirates
32
39
0.4507
3
3
23.21%
Toronto Blue Jays
26
26
0.5000
2
2
15.38%
Washington Senators/Minnesota Twins
25
39
0.3906
3
2
19.64%
Arizona Diamondbacks
17
16
0.5152
1
1
27.78%
Houston Colt .45s/Astros
24
38
0.3871
1
0
18.52%
Cleveland Indians
35
34
0.5072
2
0
14.29%
Kansas City Royals
39
34
0.5342
4
2
19.15%
Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals
9
11
0.4500
0
0
6.38%
New York Mets
51
37
0.5795
5
2
14.81%
Texas Rangers
21
28
0.4286
2
0
12.73%
Seattle Pilots/Milwaukee Brewers
14
18
0.4375
1
0
8.51%
Chicago Cubs
12
27
0.3077
0
0
12.50%
Florida/Miami Marlins
22
11
0.6667
2
2
8.70%
Seattle Mariners
15
19
0.4412
0
0
10.26%
Colorado Rockies
9
10
0.4737
1
0
13.04%
Tampa Bay Devil Rays/Rays
12
17
0.4138
1
0
22.22%
San Diego Padres
12
22
0.3529
2
0
10.64%

1) Not surprisingly, the New York Yankees have been the best team during that span.  I was a little surprised by how far in front they were – their winning percentage of .5598 is over 20 percentage points ahead of the next team, the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Yankees, Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals, Boston Red Sox, and Cincinnati Reds currently fill out the top five.

2) Expansion teams are at a huge disadvantage.  Of the fourteen teams that have been added from 1961 on, only one has an overall winning percentage above .500 – the Los Angeles/California/Anaheim Angels, who checked in at #11 with a .5015 winning percentage.  No other expansion team is over .500 overall.  Further, only two of the original 16 teams are below the Arizona Diamondbacks at #17 – the Cleveland Indians (#19) and the Chicago Cubs (#25).

3) The worst teams?  Congratulations, San Diego:  your Padres are horrible!  With a .4637 overall winning percentage, they check in at #30, with Tampa Bay, Colorado, Seattle, and the Florida/Miami Marlins in order as the next worst teams.  The Padres have had a history of misguided owners (C. Arnold Smith!  The Krocs, Ray and Joan!  Tom Werner and Marcy Carsey!), which hasn’t helped.  That said, I expect Colorado to make it to the bottom in the next couple of years, as the Padres seem to be straightening out their issues (slowly), while the Monfort brothers have been and will likely continue to run the Rockies further into the ground.

4) One of the guides to how good or bad your team has been is 95-win or 95-loss seasons.  Obviously, a huge number of bad seasons in a row creates a gigantic hole to dig out of.  My New York Mets are a prime example of this – they lost 95 or more games each of their first six seasons, and had a winning percentage of .348 (that’s not a typo) from 1962 to 1968.  They’re nine games under .500 since then, but that’s an awfully big hole.

5) The Yankees, not surprisingly, have the most 95-win seasons, with 23 out of the 56 seasons from 1960 to 2015.  The Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals, and Red Sox have combined for 54 95-win seasons during that span, with only three 95-loss seasons in the debit column.  The Mets have the most 95-loss seasons overall at 13 – but they also have the most 95-win seasons among the expansion teams with six.  Feast or famine.  The Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, and San Diego Padres have eleven 95-loss seasons apiece, which is most embarrassing to the Mariners, given they’ve only been around since 1977.

6) As you might guess, the Yankees have also won 138 post-season (playoff and World Series) games, more than any other team, with the Cardinals in second.  (Those teams also rank first and second in post-season losses, but it’s better to be there than not.)  Win percentage in the postseason is quite different, however – the Florida Marlins actually have the best postseason winning percentage at .667, thanks to their two fluky World Series wins in 1997 and 2003 (they’ve never been in the postseason any other year).  And the Mets, as lousy as they’ve been at times in the regular season, have the second best postseason winning percentage at .580.  Worst goes to the Chicago Cubs (with their three wins and five losses this past year, they were able to bring their winning percentage up to .308), followed by the Padres.

7) The Yankees have also won the most pennants (16) and World Series (9) during this time period, with the Cardinals in second in both categories.  Among the expansion teams, the Mets have won the most pennants with five, and are in a four-way tie with Kansas City, Toronto, and Florida/Miami with two World Series wins apiece.  The Expos/Nationals franchise is tied with Seattle and the Cubs for the futility record – no pennants, no World Series.

8) Finally, the Yankees have been in the postseason an astonishing 48 percent of the time, with the Dodgers and Cardinals checking in by making the postseason 34 percent of the time.  The Arizona Diamondbacks have the best record among the expansion teams by making the playoffs 28 percent of the time – but that’s a bit misleading; their sample size is smaller (18 years) and there are a lot more playoff spots now than there were 30 or 50 years ago.  The Nationals, Brewers, and Marlins bring up the rear – along with the Chicago White Sox, even though their overall winning percentage is over .500.

1 comment:

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