The Remaining Free Agents

Okay, let’s take a look at the biggest MLB free agents still out there, and why they aren’t signed.

1B Eric Hosmer

Hosmer’s gotten offers – he’s got two seven-year deals on the table, from San Diego for $140 million and from Kansas City (where he’s been for seven years) for $147 million. According to USA Today, he’s trying to get a nine-year deal like Prince Fielder or an eight-year deal like Jason Heyward. This may be part of the problem: no general manager wants to give out contracts that are comparable to Prince Fielder’s (he racked up 6.9 WAR in the first six years of the deal at a cost of $142 million, then had to retire because of back issues) or Jason Heyward’s (3.9 WAR over two years with the Cubs, after 31.1 WAR in his first six seasons with Atlanta and St. Louis, at a cost of nearly $50 million for those two years – he has the right to opt out after this season, but how likely is that to happen?). Teams may be wising up to the idea that players are going downhill quicker than they were 15 years ago – the idea of an everyday player putting up the same numbers until his late 30s, except for the years 1995-2005 or so (e.g. The Steroid and Amphetamine Years) was pretty much only done by Hall of Famers. Anyway, I would think Hosmer would take one of the two offers – except his agent’s Scott Boras, who tends to be hardheaded about these things.

SP Yu Darvish

Darvish also has offers on the table, but is waiting for bigger offers from either the Yankees or Dodgers. I doubt he’ll get them (both of those teams may be saving money for Bryce Harper). Also, Darvish missed all of 2015 with Tommy John surgery, so he’s not guaranteed, and he had a lousy World Series. He could wind up with the Cubs, the Brewers, or back with Texas. Look for him to sign in the next few days.  UPDATE:  Darvish has apparently agreed to terms on a six-year deal with the Cubs for $126 million.

OF J.D. Martinez

Outfielder should be in quotes; Martinez is not a good fielder. He was looking for huge money, but he’s finished in the top 10 in WAR precisely once (10^th, in 2014). So he’s a good hitter, but he was apparently looking for seven years at $30 million a year – and that’s not going to happen to a guy who was born to DH. The Red Sox are offering $125 over five years, which is still rarified territory – he’d be among the top 15 highest-paid players, per USA Today (and I’m pretty sure the GMs for at least five of those players are now saying, “I wish I could do that one over”). But his agent is Scott Boras, so Martinez is indicating he’s not happy with the Sox’ offer – which may lead them to withdraw it (he’s not going to play the outfield with Betts, Bradley Jr., and Benintendi there, and if he DHs for the Sox, Hanley Ramirez has no place to play), in which case he’d be really screwed.

SP Jake Arrieta

This one’s easy. Arrieta’s WAR numbers the last three years: 8.7, 3.4, 1.9. Who wants to be the GM who finds out the hard way what the next number is in that sequence? USA Today is theorizing he’ll go to the Nationals, and if they pay $120 million for five years, they’ll regret it. Scott Boras is his agent, too, and Arrieta’s the most likely to sit and wait for what he wants. (Not a good plan for pitchers; Roy Oswalt did that a few years ago, and instantly became an old man when he finally signed.)

3B Mike Moustakas

Moustakas is only 29, so you’d think teams would be interested in him – but there are less openings for third basemen than one might expect. Also, he’s only had a season over 2.0 WAR twice in seven years, and, well, I can see why the Mets took Todd Frazier. I think he’ll actually get a multiyear deal – the Yankees may step up – but two issues: the Royals would get a compensatory pick from the signing team, and (stop me if you’ve heard this one) Scott Boras is his agent. (Honestly, I think teams are conspiring against Boras, not free agents.)

SP Lance Lynn, SP Alex Cobb, RP Greg Holland

I’m putting these guys in a group because they have the same issue – they all had Tommy John surgery in 2015 (Darvish had his in 2014). They all had pretty good years last year, but not spectacular. Still, I’d take Lynn (who’s a pretty solid starting pitcher) or Holland pretty quickly. (Holland’s been accused of having a bad second half, but he actually had one really bad month – August. His month-by-month ERAs: 1.50, 1.17, 1.69, 2.25, 13.50, 1.86. If his lousy month had been September I’d be more worried, but it looks like he fixed whatever the problem was.) Also, none of these guys are repped by Scott Boras. Something will get done for all three pretty soon.