Nolan Arenado to the Mets? Okay By Me!

By Curt Alliaume

 

CBS Sports, Bleacher Report, Sports Illustrated, and a few other outlets are reporting the Colorado Rockies “want to engage” the New York Mets in trade talks for their All-Star third baseman, Nolan Arenado.

I don’t know what “want to engage” really means in this context. I’m guessing it’s somebody in the Rockies’ front office spreading the word that, “Hey, we’re going to lose this guy in a year no matter what, so let’s see if we can get anything for him.” Arenado has six years left on a ten-year contract that will pay him $35 million each of the next four years (and slightly less thereafter); he also has a player opt-out clause that would allow him to leave after next season. Given Arenado has made no secret about how lousy a job the Rockies’ front office has done developing good players and bringing in guys to compete, he’s likely to use that clause (unless it’s obvious he won’t get anywhere near the deal he has now). They made the playoffs in 2017 and 2018, but haven’t come close the last two years, and that’s with a pretty good manager (Bud Black) at the helm.

Arenado’s a star. First of all, he’s won eight consecutive Gold Gloves. Last year was his first year since 2014 he put up an OPS of less than .898 or played in less than 95 percent of the team’s games. (He got off to a slow start after the season started in July, hit near his career norms in August, and then got shut down in September with a shoulder injury, which was only the second time he’s gone to the IL in his career.) And he obviously wants to win.

And he’s not old. He’s 29 now; he’ll be 30 a couple of weeks after the season starts.

I don’t know what the Rockies will want in exchange for Arenado (Brodie Van Wagenen basically strip-mined the Mets’ farm system, so they don’t have a ton to offer), but it’s possible the Rocks may take something low in order to get out from under his contract. And if the Mets can get Arenado to waive his opt-out clause, it could be a pretty sweet deal. I wonder if they’d be willing to offer some of the parts that don’t currently fit (Amed Rosario? J.D. Davis? Possibly either Dominic Smith or Pete Alonso, assuming the DH isn’t coming back to the NL this year?) to get ahold of Arenado.

Arenado has 39.1 WAR in his eight seasons in the majors—by comparison, David Wright was eight months younger after his first eight big league seasons, and had 34.4 WAR. (Wright might have been a slightly better hitter, but he was not close to Arenado as a fielder.)

If I’m in the Mets front office, I’ve got to consider this.

 

 

What's Going to Happen to Kyle Schwarber?

By Curt Alliaume

There were a few eyebrows raised here this week when Chicago Cubs outfielder Kyle Schwarber wasn’t offered arbitration, making him a free agent. And I can understand where those fans are coming from—Schwarber was a part of the 2016 World Series-winning team (albeit a very small part; he missed all but two games during the regular season due to an ACL tear, but made it back for the World Series and had a .912 OPS strictly as a DH and pinch hitter). Schwarber can hit—he hit 126 home runs for the Cubs over the last six years, with an .816 OPS overall.
 
The Cubs, however, were probably looking at three factors:
1) Schwarber would have gotten a raise from his $7 million salary in 2020, a year in which he hit .188/.308/.393. (I’m not an advocate of basing decisions like this strictly on 2020 statistics given the nature of the way the year has gone, but I’m sure it was a consideration.)
2) He struggles against left-handed pitching. A lot. His career OPS against righties is .859; against lefties it’s .650. And his struggles against lefties are because he just can’t hit them; his strikeout rate against them is 33.8 percent. That’s too much.
3) In this time when you want your players to be skilled at multiple positions, Schwarber can only play left field. (He came up as a catcher, but hasn’t caught a game since 2017.) And he’s not a good left fielder either; his six errors in 2019 led the position, and his range is below average. (He does have a very good arm.)
 
So you’ve got a guy who’s limited on defense, limited by his lack of ability against left-handed pitching, and coming off a down year. Add in that the Cubs really aren’t sure if Schwarber could DH, since the National League hasn’t made that decision yet… and you can see why they went the way they did. (Aside: if MLB wanted to give a significant advantage to American League teams during the off season, they could do no better than to tell the National League “We’re not sure how you should construct your roster because we don’t know if you’ll be able to use some of the people you sign.” It’s ridiculous this has dragged on as long as it has.)
 
One other thing: the Cubs had to decide on not just Schwarber but Kris Bryant, who was also eligible for arbitration. Bryant missed much of last year due to injury, and really wasn’t much better than Schwarber when he did play. But his ceiling is higher than Schwarber’s (he was the league’s MVP in 2016), and he’s capable at multiple positions (he may wind up moving into the left-field spot in 2021), and it would have been ironic after the Cubs bent over backward to avoid starting Bryant’s service clock in 2015, then deciding in 2020 to cut him loose a year early.
 
So where will Schwarber go? Bleacher Report ranks the options, with the White Sox coming in first, followed by Toronto and Minnesota. All of which would make sense—Schwarber is going to be a full-time designated hitter sooner or later, so he might be better off signing with an American League team now, rather than signing up with an NL team for a position that may not actually exist. And here’s something optimistic for Schwarber fans: Statcast notes his hard-hit rate has increased every year over the last five seasons (excluding his injury-shortened 2016 season). Again, I’m not sure if you want 2020 to count given the nature of what happened, but you can’t ignore the rest of it.
 
He’ll be okay. Even with Kyle Schwarber’s limitations, there will always be a need for somebody who can hit a baseball real hard.