By Curt Alliaume
There were a few eyebrows raised here this week when Chicago Cubs
outfielder Kyle Schwarber wasn’t offered arbitration, making him a free agent.
And I can understand where those fans are coming from—Schwarber was a part of
the 2016 World Series-winning team (albeit a very small part; he missed all but
two games during the regular season due to an ACL tear, but made it back for
the World Series and had a .912 OPS strictly as a DH and pinch hitter). Schwarber
can hit—he hit 126 home runs for the Cubs over the last six years, with an .816
OPS overall.
The Cubs, however, were probably looking at three factors:
1) Schwarber would have gotten a raise from his $7 million salary in 2020, a year in which he hit .188/.308/.393. (I’m not an advocate of basing decisions like this strictly on 2020 statistics given the nature of the way the year has gone, but I’m sure it was a consideration.)
2) He struggles against left-handed pitching. A lot. His career OPS against righties is .859; against lefties it’s .650. And his struggles against lefties are because he just can’t hit them; his strikeout rate against them is 33.8 percent. That’s too much.
3) In this time when you want your players to be skilled at multiple positions, Schwarber can only play left field. (He came up as a catcher, but hasn’t caught a game since 2017.) And he’s not a good left fielder either; his six errors in 2019 led the position, and his range is below average. (He does have a very good arm.)
So you’ve got a guy who’s limited on defense, limited by his lack of
ability against left-handed pitching, and coming off a down year. Add in that
the Cubs really aren’t sure if Schwarber could DH, since the National League
hasn’t made that decision yet… and you can see why they went the way they did.
(Aside: if MLB wanted to give a significant advantage to American League teams
during the off season, they could do no better than to tell the National League
“We’re not sure how you should construct your roster because we don’t know if you’ll
be able to use some of the people you sign.” It’s ridiculous this has dragged
on as long as it has.)
One other thing: the Cubs had to decide on not just Schwarber but Kris
Bryant, who was also eligible for arbitration. Bryant missed much of last year
due to injury, and really wasn’t much better than Schwarber when he did play.
But his ceiling is higher than Schwarber’s (he was the league’s MVP in 2016),
and he’s capable at multiple positions (he may wind up moving into the
left-field spot in 2021), and it would have been ironic after the Cubs bent
over backward to avoid starting Bryant’s service clock in 2015, then deciding in
2020 to cut him loose a year early.
So where will Schwarber go? Bleacher
Report ranks the options, with the White Sox coming in first, followed by
Toronto and Minnesota. All of which would make sense—Schwarber is going to be a
full-time designated hitter sooner or later, so he might be better off signing
with an American League team now, rather than signing up with an NL team for a
position that may not actually exist. And here’s something optimistic for Schwarber
fans: Statcast notes his hard-hit
rate has increased every year over the last five seasons (excluding his
injury-shortened 2016 season). Again, I’m not sure if you want 2020 to count
given the nature of what happened, but you can’t ignore the rest of it.
He’ll be okay. Even with Kyle Schwarber’s limitations, there will
always be a need for somebody who can hit a baseball real hard.
1) Schwarber would have gotten a raise from his $7 million salary in 2020, a year in which he hit .188/.308/.393. (I’m not an advocate of basing decisions like this strictly on 2020 statistics given the nature of the way the year has gone, but I’m sure it was a consideration.)
2) He struggles against left-handed pitching. A lot. His career OPS against righties is .859; against lefties it’s .650. And his struggles against lefties are because he just can’t hit them; his strikeout rate against them is 33.8 percent. That’s too much.
3) In this time when you want your players to be skilled at multiple positions, Schwarber can only play left field. (He came up as a catcher, but hasn’t caught a game since 2017.) And he’s not a good left fielder either; his six errors in 2019 led the position, and his range is below average. (He does have a very good arm.)
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