The Free Agent Frenzy Begins: Kolten Wong

 

By Curt Alliaume

 

The St. Louis Cardinals announced yesterday they would buy out second baseman Kolten Wong’s 2021 contract. Instead of paying him $12.5 million to play for the Cardinals in 2021, they will pay him $1 million and send him on his way.

The first reaction I saw is that means there won’t be much money for free agents this season, as has been the case for the last few years. And while I don’t necessarily disagree with that point, there’s another factor at work: the Cardinals have a lot of money already invested in bad contracts, and at some point, you have to stop.

This website shows a matrix of what the team’s roster looks like, and where their money is going over the next few years. Right now, they already have over $110 million invested in seven players (and now, Wong’s buyout). Here’s where that money is going:

Paul Goldschmidt ($26.5 million) – Goldy had somewhat of a comeback last year after an off year in 2019 if you look at the basic numbers. But the jump in batting average can be attributed to a big jump in BABIP (batting average on balls in play), going from .303 to .364—a rate that usually isn’t sustainable. His power numbers actually went down (.476 slugging in 2019 vs. .466 in 2020) despite a 44-point gain in batting average—which may mean he was hitting a lot of singles and doubles. The odds are he’ll probably be somewhere between 2019 and 2020 next year, which given he’s now 33 years old, isn’t unreasonable.

Matt Carpenter ($18.5 million) – There’s not much to say here. Carpenter’s OPS numbers the last three years: .897, .726, .640. He turns 35 next month, so that number is trending in the wrong direction too. He really has to play third base at this point (he used to play second, but he’s no longer a defensive option there), and injuries and time have taken their toll. The Cardinals have to pay him $18.5 million next year no matter what; his buyout doesn’t kick in until after next season ends.

Miles Mikolas ($16.75 million) – Another contract that may turn out to be bad. Mikolas spent 2013 and 2014 in San Diego and Texas as a league-average pitcher, then pitched quite well in Japan for three seasons. He signed a two-year deal with the Cardinals for 2018 and 2019, then pitched very well in 2018 (18-4, 2.83 ERA, 1.071 WHIP), whereupon the Cardinals gave him a four-year, $68 million deal running through 2023. His output dropped in 2019 (9-14, 4.27 ERA, 1.223 ERA), partially because his contact rate went up and more balls went over the fence. And he didn’t pitch at all in 2020 due to flexor tendon surgery. Now the Cardinals probably aren’t sure what they have—and they have it for three more years and roughly $51 million.

Dexter Fowler ($16.5 million) – Another big free-agent signing the Birds probably wish they could have back. Fowler put up 6.4 WAR in two years with the Cubs from 2015 to 2016, so the Cards gave him a long-term deal at $16.5 million per year through 2021, and, well, he hasn’t lived up to it (1.9 WAR over the first four years, -0.1 in 2020). When he got to St. Louis he played center field and produced more than enough at the plate to make that work, but his range has declined (he’ll be 35 next March), so now he’s in right, and his bat no longer justifies an everyday position, but you don’t want a $16.5 million guy on the bench. The Cardinals were teeming with outfielders at one point (Tommy Pham, Randall Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty), but most of them have been dealt away for one reason or another, and none of the current crop (Fowler, Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson) produced an .800 OPS in 2020. So Fowler may be back in right to justify his salary.

Carlos Martinez ($11.5 million) – Martinez had COVID-19 this year, to the point where he had to be hospitalized, so first and foremost we want him to be safe and well. He did pitch this year (poorly), and hurt his back in his last start—so again, who knows what the Cards have here? It would help if they could decide whether he’s a starter or reliever and stick to it—he pitched primarily in relief for his first two seasons, then was a pretty effective starter from 2015 to 2018. Injuries and a glut of starters sent him to the bullpen in 2019, where he became a pretty good closer (24 saves, 3.17 ERA, 1.179 WHIP), but the Cards put him in the starting rotation once they got going this year, and he was diagnosed with COVID-19 after his first start, winding up with a 9.90 ERA. So let’s throw out this year, but what are they going to do with him? Fansided suggests trading him for Andrew Benintendi, which doesn’t sound realistic to me; Benintendi is three years younger and makes a little over half as much. I think the Cards have to go into spring training with a plan: he’s going to be a starter, or he’s going to be a closer, and stick with it.

In addition, the Cardinals renewed Andrew Miller’s contract ($12 million), have Paul DeJong signed through 2023 ($4 million), and have Kwang Hyung Kim signed through 20201 ($4 million)—but the big money (almost $90 million) is tied up five seriously questionable players whose WAR contributions the last three years have gone as follows:
2018 – 16.1 WAR (Goldschmidt was with the Diamondbacks in 2018)

2019 – 7.5 WAR

2020 – 0.3 WAR

The good news is Fowler, Carpenter, and Martinez are free agents (or will have option years the team can turn down) after 2021, so that will open up some money.

And money is the reason why Wong had to go. He’s a fine defensive second baseman (won a Gold Glove in 2019, and deserves consideration this year), but offensively the team never knew what guy was going to show up—his hitting was pretty good at times, less good for others (.675 OPS in 2020). I kept hearing from fantasy experts, “This is going to be Kolten Wong’s year!” but around 2018, I finally gave up on that idea. Viva El Birdos is very disappointed by his exit, but with his inconsistent performance, and the money they’ve got tied up in other players, means paying Wong to be on what may be a very average team—weighed down by players who are making lots of money and haven’t been producing—doesn’t make sense.

He’ll land someplace, and he’ll probably make Cardinals fans upset a few times. But as a dispassionate observer, I totally get this.

25 Years and Counting: The Teams That Haven't Won a World Series in Over a Quarter Century

 

By Curt Alliaume

Congratulations to the Los Angeles Dodgers for winning their first World Series since 1988. That’s a 32-year gap, the longest the franchise has had since winning their first World Series, which didn’t come until 1955.

 

There are still many teams which have gone decades since winning a World Series—if they’ve won one at all. I thought I’d take a look at what teams have gone without a World Series win in the last 25 years, how they’ve done during that time, and what their chances are for taking one in the future.

 

Atlanta Braves

 

Last World Series Win – 1995

Record Since 1995 – 2,176-1,769 (.552 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Lots. They had a streak between 1991 and 2005 making the playoffs every year (excluding 1994, which due to the strike/lockout there were no playoffs and World Series), and made it again in 2010, 2012, 2013, and the last three years (2018-2020). They’ve only made the World Series twice during that time, however, losing to the Yankees both times.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Excellent. They had a 3-1 lead against the Dodgers in the NLCS this year before falling apart, and that was with a starting rotation held together by duct tape and prayer. They have stars like Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, and Marcell Ozuna (although Ozuna’s set to be a free agent), and Freddie Freeman is only 30. They’ll be around for a while.

 

 

Baltimore Orioles

 

Last World Series Win – 1983

Record Since 1995 – 1,821-2,125 (.461 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – 1996 and 1997 (lost the American League Championship Series both times), and 2012, 2014, and 2016.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Not great. They finished 25-35 this season, which is probably a bit better than anyone expected, but they’re still probably a year or two away in a tough division. They also have to pay Chris Davis $23 million for the next two years—Davis isn’t the only thing that’s gone wrong in the last few years, but as a guy who became an old man about five seconds after the ink dried on his contract, he’s an easy target.

 

 

Cincinnati Reds

 

Last World Series Win – 1990

Record Since 1995 – 1,887-2062 (.478 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – 2010, 2012, 2013, and 2020, and they lost every one of those series.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – I kind of doubt it. I haven’t seen any signs that the Reds’ ownership and front office are aces at what they do. They made the playoffs three times in four years from 2010 to 2013 under Dusty Baker, and decided he didn’t know what he was doing. (He was replaced by Bryan Price, who really didn’t know what he was doing.) They did make the playoffs this year, but their Pythagorean winning percentage only went from .494 to .500, they didn’t score a run in the playoffs, and it’s likely Trevor Bauer will be in a different uniform next year. That’s not a recipe to be competitive with the Dodgers and Braves.

 

 

Cleveland Indians

 

Last World Series Win – 1954

Record Since 1995 – 2,077-1,867 (.527 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – 11 total, the most recent being this year. Two World Series losses, in 1997 to the Florida Marlins and in 2016 to the Cubs.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Don’t bet the ranch on it. The Indians’ ownership tends to prefer a low payroll; they dealt Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer last year (Bauer stands a decent chance of winning the Cy Young this year), and got rid of Mike Clevinger after he and Zack Plesac broke COVID-19 protocol rules (Plesac was the more defiant and obnoxious about it, but Clevinger makes more money). Francisco Lindor might be dealt this winter, except he’s coming off a down year. This team might win a fluke World Series, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to be super competitive in the near future.

 

 

Colorado Rockies

 

Last World Series Win – none (franchise began in 1993)

Record Since 1995 – 1,862-2,088 (.471 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – 2007 (when they lost the World Series to Boston), 2009, 2017, and 2018

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Not great. They’ve had two consecutive losing seasons, and their best player, Nolan Arenado, hasn’t been happy about the lack of progress (unfortunately, he had a lousy season this year). After a couple of years where the team’s pitching had been not terrible, they’ve moved back to the worst in the league. I don’t know how to solve that problem (it’s hard to attract good pitchers as free agents there, and there hasn’t been a consistent record of success for either hard or soft tossers) short of the team throwing up its hands and putting a dome on the stadium, which I’m pretty sure they don’t want to do.

 

 

Detroit Tigers

 

Last World Series Win – 1984

Record Since 1995 – 1,800-2,142 (.457 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Five between 2006 and 2014. That includes AL pennants (and World Series losses) in 2006 and 2012.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Not in the next couple of years. The Tigers are in the middle of a massive rebuild (in fact, almost 42 percent of the 342 games under .500 from above are from the last four years) that hasn’t started bearing fruit yet. We know this can work, as it did for the Houston Astros (cough), but it’s going to take a while.

 

 

Milwaukee Brewers

 

Last World Series Win – none (franchise began in 1969 as the Seattle Pilots)

Record Since 1995 – 1,900-2,046 (.482 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – 2008, 2011, and the last three years, including three trips to the National League Championship Series.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – There’s some talent on the current team, but not on the level of Atlanta or Los Angeles. It’s really a challenge for this franchise; it’s a small market with Chicago directly to the south taking up some of their audience (and Lake Michigan to the east). They need to build up a better farm system than they’ve done so far. Christian Yelich is still in his prime, so I think they’ll contend, but it will be an uphill battle.

 

 

Minnesota Twins

 

Last World Series Win – 1991

Record Since 1995 – 1,943-2,004 (.492 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Nine since 2002, including the last two years. No pennants, one ALCS loss.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Once they overcome the mental block of winning a playoff game, it’s entirely possible. Their playoff losing streak has reached 18 games, which is embarrassing, but sooner or later they’ll overcome it. They’ve got a pretty good pitching staff and they’ll hit better than they did last year. I expect they’ll contend with Tampa Bay and the Yankees next year.

 

 

New York Mets

 

Last World Series Win – 1986

Record Since 1995 – 1,978-1,969 (.501 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – 1999, 2000, 2006, 2015, and 2016. They won the NL pennants in 2000 and 2015, although even as a Mets fan I’d say those were a little bit of a fluke.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – I don’t know. This team has been in flux for the last few years; they were managed poorly by Mickey Callaway, they’ve been run poorly by Brodie Van Wagenen, and they’ve had horrible owners in Fred and Jeff Wilpon. Assuming the sale to Steve Cohen goes through as scheduled later this week, they’ll have their best owner since Joan Payson (well, arguably Nelson Doubleday too), a huge fan of the team (Fred Wilpon famously built more monuments to the Brooklyn Dodgers at Citi Field than the Mets) with plenty of money. But the farm system is weak, and they need to be better at staying healthy and fitting all the pieces together.

 

 

Oakland Athletics

Last World Series Win – 1989

Record Since 1995 – 2,069-1,877 (.524 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – 11 appearances in all, including the last three years. No pennants and only one ALCS appearance – they lost the fifth game of the American League Division Series six times out of seven from 2000 to 2013.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Decent, maybe on a par with the Twins. This has been a well-run franchise since Billy Beane took over in the front office. One thing that has dragged it down is a decent stadium (they were the last team to share with a football team until the Oakland Raiders moved out this year; what’s left is made more for football than baseball, and while the team has looked for new locations within the Bay Area, the San Francisco Giants have veto power over most of them); it’s not crucial at the moment, but it would helpful.

 

 

Pittsburgh Pirates

Last World Series Win – 1977

Record Since 1995 – 1,791-2,151 (.454 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Three from 2013-2015; they didn’t make it past the National League Division Series in any of them.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Terrible. They had the worst record in baseball last year. They’re just starting on a rebuild that might not have been necessary had they not made that terrible Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows for Chris Archer trade two years ago (they’re probably going to decline the option on Archer’s contract; he missed all of 2020 due to arm trouble). This team has been run pretty poorly for the last 30 years, and I don’t get the sense things are going to change soon.

 

 

San Diego Padres

Last World Series Win – none (franchise began in 1969)

Record Since 1995 – 1,884-2,065 (.477 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Five, including this year (they were swept by the Dodgers in the NLDS). They won the 1998 NL pennant, but lost to the Yankees in the World Series.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Pretty decent. The Padres perpetually have had poor ownership and/or team management, but it looks like they’ve gotten themselves straightened out. (Coincidentally, their field managers during most of the last quarter century, Bruce Bochy and Bud Black, have been highly regarded and reasonably successful.) They’ve got a solid young nucleus in the field and fleeced the Brewers and Indians to pick up good starting pitchers in Zach Davies and Mike Clevinger. They may not be on the same level as the Dodgers and Braves, but they’re not far behind.

 

 

Seattle Mariners

Last World Series Win – none (franchise began in 1977)

Record Since 1995 – 1,952-1,994 (.495 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Three from 1997 to 2001 under Lou Piniella (including famously losing the ALCS to the Yankees in 2001 after setting the all-time record for wins in the regular season with 116), nothing since then.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Not great. They’ve been in a holding pattern the last few years, trading players furiously while waiting for their farm system to improve, and I haven’t noticed anything that makes me think they’re headed in a positive direction. And they’re in a tough division; it appears the A’s and Astros are far better organized and run than the Mariners.

 

 

Tampa Bay Rays

Last World Series Win – none (franchise began in 1998)

Record Since 1995 – 1,726-1,896 (.477 winning percentage). I’m going to put in a caveat: the first ten years of the franchise the team’s winning percentage was .399; since then it’s been .539.

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Six since 2008, including AL pennants in 2008 and 2020. They just lost the World Series to the Dodgers.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Great. They’re on an upswing, they’re a very well-run franchise given they aren’t in a great revenue-generating market (hint: move closer to Orlando), and they’ve got some solid pitching. No reason they shouldn’t be in contention the next few years.

 

 

Texas Rangers

Last World Series Win – none (franchise began in 1961)

Record Since 1995 – 1,991-1,958 (.504 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Eight total, including pennants in 2011 and 2012 (lost to the Cardinals and Giants in the World Series, respectively).

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Bad. They’ve been under .500 four straight seasons, they don’t hit much, and taking a chance on Corey Kluber in a trade didn’t pan out. It’s embarrassing this franchise has played for 60 seasons without a World Series title, but I don’t see that changing soon. (Do keep in mind those eight playoff appearances since 1995 are the only ones they’ve ever made; they completely whiffed in the 35 years before that.)

 

 

Toronto Blue Jays

Last World Series Win – 1993

Record Since 1995 – 1,953-1,994 (.495 winning percentage)

Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Three, after being out for two decades. They lost the ALCS in 2015 and 2016, and were shut out in the Wild Card round this year.

Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – All right. The good news is they have a solid group of young position players, but the bad news is their pitching staff isn’t very good. Still, the rebuild they started a few years ago is already paying dividends, and I don’t see an American League team that has the talent the Dodgers or Braves do, so why not Toronto?