By Curt Alliaume
The St. Louis Cardinals announced yesterday they would buy out second baseman Kolten Wong’s 2021 contract. Instead of paying him $12.5 million to play for the Cardinals in 2021, they will pay him $1 million and send him on his way.
The first reaction I saw is that means there won’t be much money for free agents this season, as has been the case for the last few years. And while I don’t necessarily disagree with that point, there’s another factor at work: the Cardinals have a lot of money already invested in bad contracts, and at some point, you have to stop.
This
website shows a matrix of what the team’s roster looks like, and where
their money is going over the next few years. Right now, they already have over
$110 million invested in seven players (and now, Wong’s buyout). Here’s where
that money is going:
Paul Goldschmidt ($26.5 million) – Goldy had somewhat of a comeback last
year after an off year in 2019 if you look at the basic numbers. But the jump
in batting average can be attributed to a big jump in BABIP (batting average on
balls in play), going from .303 to .364—a rate that usually isn’t sustainable. His
power numbers actually went down (.476 slugging in 2019 vs. .466 in 2020)
despite a 44-point gain in batting average—which may mean he was hitting a lot
of singles and doubles. The odds are he’ll probably be somewhere between 2019
and 2020 next year, which given he’s now 33 years old, isn’t unreasonable.
Matt Carpenter ($18.5 million) – There’s not much to say here. Carpenter’s OPS numbers the last three years: .897, .726, .640. He turns 35 next month, so that number is trending in the wrong direction too. He really has to play third base at this point (he used to play second, but he’s no longer a defensive option there), and injuries and time have taken their toll. The Cardinals have to pay him $18.5 million next year no matter what; his buyout doesn’t kick in until after next season ends.
Miles Mikolas ($16.75 million) – Another contract that may turn out to be bad. Mikolas spent 2013 and 2014 in San Diego and Texas as a league-average pitcher, then pitched quite well in Japan for three seasons. He signed a two-year deal with the Cardinals for 2018 and 2019, then pitched very well in 2018 (18-4, 2.83 ERA, 1.071 WHIP), whereupon the Cardinals gave him a four-year, $68 million deal running through 2023. His output dropped in 2019 (9-14, 4.27 ERA, 1.223 ERA), partially because his contact rate went up and more balls went over the fence. And he didn’t pitch at all in 2020 due to flexor tendon surgery. Now the Cardinals probably aren’t sure what they have—and they have it for three more years and roughly $51 million.
Dexter Fowler ($16.5 million) – Another big free-agent signing the Birds probably wish they could have back. Fowler put up 6.4 WAR in two years with the Cubs from 2015 to 2016, so the Cards gave him a long-term deal at $16.5 million per year through 2021, and, well, he hasn’t lived up to it (1.9 WAR over the first four years, -0.1 in 2020). When he got to St. Louis he played center field and produced more than enough at the plate to make that work, but his range has declined (he’ll be 35 next March), so now he’s in right, and his bat no longer justifies an everyday position, but you don’t want a $16.5 million guy on the bench. The Cardinals were teeming with outfielders at one point (Tommy Pham, Randall Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty), but most of them have been dealt away for one reason or another, and none of the current crop (Fowler, Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson) produced an .800 OPS in 2020. So Fowler may be back in right to justify his salary.
Carlos Martinez ($11.5 million) – Martinez had COVID-19 this year, to the point where he had to be hospitalized, so first and foremost we want him to be safe and well. He did pitch this year (poorly), and hurt his back in his last start—so again, who knows what the Cards have here? It would help if they could decide whether he’s a starter or reliever and stick to it—he pitched primarily in relief for his first two seasons, then was a pretty effective starter from 2015 to 2018. Injuries and a glut of starters sent him to the bullpen in 2019, where he became a pretty good closer (24 saves, 3.17 ERA, 1.179 WHIP), but the Cards put him in the starting rotation once they got going this year, and he was diagnosed with COVID-19 after his first start, winding up with a 9.90 ERA. So let’s throw out this year, but what are they going to do with him? Fansided suggests trading him for Andrew Benintendi, which doesn’t sound realistic to me; Benintendi is three years younger and makes a little over half as much. I think the Cards have to go into spring training with a plan: he’s going to be a starter, or he’s going to be a closer, and stick with it.
In addition, the Cardinals renewed Andrew Miller’s contract ($12
million), have Paul DeJong signed through 2023 ($4 million), and have Kwang
Hyung Kim signed through 20201 ($4 million)—but the big money (almost $90
million) is tied up five seriously questionable players whose WAR contributions
the last three years have gone as follows:
2018 – 16.1 WAR (Goldschmidt was with the Diamondbacks in 2018)
2019 – 7.5 WAR
2020 – 0.3 WAR
The good news is Fowler, Carpenter, and Martinez are free agents (or will have option years the team can turn down) after 2021, so that will open up some money.
And money is the reason why Wong had to go. He’s a fine defensive second baseman (won a Gold Glove in 2019, and deserves consideration this year), but offensively the team never knew what guy was going to show up—his hitting was pretty good at times, less good for others (.675 OPS in 2020). I kept hearing from fantasy experts, “This is going to be Kolten Wong’s year!” but around 2018, I finally gave up on that idea. Viva El Birdos is very disappointed by his exit, but with his inconsistent performance, and the money they’ve got tied up in other players, means paying Wong to be on what may be a very average team—weighed down by players who are making lots of money and haven’t been producing—doesn’t make sense.
He’ll land someplace, and he’ll probably make Cardinals fans upset a
few times. But as a dispassionate observer, I totally get this.
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