By Curt Alliaume
Congratulations to the Los Angeles Dodgers for winning their first
World Series since 1988. That’s a 32-year gap, the longest the franchise has
had since winning their first World Series, which didn’t come until
1955.
There are still many teams which have gone decades since winning a
World Series—if they’ve won one at all. I thought I’d take a look at what teams
have gone without a World Series win in the last 25 years, how they’ve done
during that time, and what their chances are for taking one in the future.
Atlanta Braves
Last World Series Win – 1995
Record Since 1995 – 2,176-1,769 (.552 winning percentage)
Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Lots. They had a streak between
1991 and 2005 making the playoffs every year (excluding 1994, which due to the
strike/lockout there were no playoffs and World Series), and made it again in
2010, 2012, 2013, and the last three years (2018-2020). They’ve only made the
World Series twice during that time, however, losing to the Yankees both times.
Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Excellent. They had a
3-1 lead against the Dodgers in the NLCS this year before falling apart, and
that was with a starting rotation held together by duct tape and prayer. They
have stars like Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, and Marcell Ozuna (although
Ozuna’s set to be a free agent), and Freddie Freeman is only 30. They’ll be
around for a while.
Baltimore Orioles
Last World Series Win – 1983
Record Since 1995 – 1,821-2,125 (.461 winning percentage)
Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – 1996 and 1997 (lost the American
League Championship Series both times), and 2012, 2014, and 2016.
Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Not great. They
finished 25-35 this season, which is probably a bit better than anyone
expected, but they’re still probably a year or two away in a tough division.
They also have to pay Chris Davis $23 million for the next two years—Davis
isn’t the only thing that’s gone wrong in the last few years, but as a guy who
became an old man about five seconds after the ink dried on his contract, he’s
an easy target.
Cincinnati Reds
Last World Series Win – 1990
Record Since 1995 – 1,887-2062 (.478 winning percentage)
Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – 2010, 2012, 2013, and 2020, and
they lost every one of those series.
Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – I kind of doubt it. I
haven’t seen any signs that the Reds’ ownership and front office are aces at
what they do. They made the playoffs three times in four years from 2010 to
2013 under Dusty Baker, and decided he didn’t know what he was doing. (He was
replaced by Bryan Price, who really didn’t know what he was doing.) They
did make the playoffs this year, but their Pythagorean winning percentage only
went from .494 to .500, they didn’t score a run in the playoffs, and it’s
likely Trevor Bauer will be in a different uniform next year. That’s not a
recipe to be competitive with the Dodgers and Braves.
Cleveland Indians
Last World Series Win – 1954
Record Since 1995 – 2,077-1,867 (.527 winning percentage)
Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – 11 total, the most recent being
this year. Two World Series losses, in 1997 to the Florida Marlins and in 2016
to the Cubs.
Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Don’t bet the ranch
on it. The Indians’ ownership tends to prefer a low payroll; they dealt Corey
Kluber and Trevor Bauer last year (Bauer stands a decent chance of winning the
Cy Young this year), and got rid of Mike Clevinger after he and Zack Plesac
broke COVID-19 protocol rules (Plesac was the more defiant and obnoxious about
it, but Clevinger makes more money). Francisco Lindor might be dealt this
winter, except he’s coming off a down year. This team might win a fluke World
Series, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to be super competitive in the near
future.
Colorado Rockies
Last World Series Win – none (franchise began in 1993)
Record Since 1995 – 1,862-2,088 (.471 winning percentage)
Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – 2007 (when they lost the World
Series to Boston), 2009, 2017, and 2018
Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Not great. They’ve
had two consecutive losing seasons, and their best player, Nolan Arenado,
hasn’t been happy about the lack of progress (unfortunately, he had a lousy
season this year). After a couple of years where the team’s pitching had been
not terrible, they’ve moved back to the worst in the league. I don’t know how
to solve that problem (it’s hard to attract good pitchers as free agents there,
and there hasn’t been a consistent record of success for either hard or soft
tossers) short of the team throwing up its hands and putting a dome on the
stadium, which I’m pretty sure they don’t want to do.
Detroit Tigers
Last World Series Win – 1984
Record Since 1995 – 1,800-2,142 (.457 winning percentage)
Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Five between 2006 and 2014.
That includes AL pennants (and World Series losses) in 2006 and 2012.
Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Not in the next
couple of years. The Tigers are in the middle of a massive rebuild (in fact,
almost 42 percent of the 342 games under .500 from above are from the last four
years) that hasn’t started bearing fruit yet. We know this can work, as it did
for the Houston Astros (cough), but it’s going to take a while.
Milwaukee Brewers
Last World Series Win – none (franchise began in 1969 as the
Seattle Pilots)
Record Since 1995 – 1,900-2,046 (.482 winning percentage)
Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – 2008, 2011, and the last three
years, including three trips to the National League Championship Series.
Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – There’s some talent
on the current team, but not on the level of Atlanta or Los Angeles. It’s
really a challenge for this franchise; it’s a small market with Chicago
directly to the south taking up some of their audience (and Lake Michigan to
the east). They need to build up a better farm system than they’ve done so far.
Christian Yelich is still in his prime, so I think they’ll contend, but it will
be an uphill battle.
Minnesota Twins
Last World Series Win – 1991
Record Since 1995 – 1,943-2,004 (.492 winning percentage)
Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Nine since 2002, including the
last two years. No pennants, one ALCS loss.
Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Once they overcome
the mental block of winning a playoff game, it’s entirely possible. Their
playoff losing streak has reached 18 games, which is embarrassing, but sooner
or later they’ll overcome it. They’ve got a pretty good pitching staff and they’ll
hit better than they did last year. I expect they’ll contend with Tampa Bay and
the Yankees next year.
New York Mets
Last World Series Win – 1986
Record Since 1995 – 1,978-1,969 (.501 winning percentage)
Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – 1999, 2000, 2006, 2015, and
2016. They won the NL pennants in 2000 and 2015, although even as a Mets fan
I’d say those were a little bit of a fluke.
Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – I don’t know. This
team has been in flux for the last few years; they were managed poorly by
Mickey Callaway, they’ve been run poorly by Brodie Van Wagenen, and they’ve had
horrible owners in Fred and Jeff Wilpon. Assuming the sale to Steve Cohen goes
through as scheduled later this week, they’ll have their best owner since Joan
Payson (well, arguably Nelson Doubleday too), a huge fan of the team (Fred
Wilpon famously built more monuments to the Brooklyn Dodgers at Citi Field than
the Mets) with plenty of money. But the farm system is weak, and they need to
be better at staying healthy and fitting all the pieces together.
Oakland Athletics
Last World Series Win – 1989
Record Since 1995 – 2,069-1,877 (.524 winning percentage)
Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – 11 appearances in all,
including the last three years. No pennants and only one ALCS appearance – they
lost the fifth game of the American League Division Series six times out of
seven from 2000 to 2013.
Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Decent, maybe on a
par with the Twins. This has been a well-run franchise since Billy Beane took
over in the front office. One thing that has dragged it down is a decent
stadium (they were the last team to share with a football team until the Oakland
Raiders moved out this year; what’s left is made more for football than
baseball, and while the team has looked for new locations within the Bay Area,
the San Francisco Giants have veto power over most of them); it’s not crucial
at the moment, but it would helpful.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Last World Series Win – 1977
Record Since 1995 – 1,791-2,151 (.454 winning percentage)
Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Three from 2013-2015; they didn’t
make it past the National League Division Series in any of them.
Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Terrible. They had
the worst record in baseball last year. They’re just starting on a rebuild that
might not have been necessary had they not made that terrible Tyler Glasnow and
Austin Meadows for Chris Archer trade two years ago (they’re probably going to
decline the option on Archer’s contract; he missed all of 2020 due to arm
trouble). This team has been run pretty poorly for the last 30 years, and I don’t
get the sense things are going to change soon.
San Diego Padres
Last World Series Win – none (franchise began in 1969)
Record Since 1995 – 1,884-2,065 (.477 winning percentage)
Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Five, including this year (they
were swept by the Dodgers in the NLDS). They won the 1998 NL pennant, but lost
to the Yankees in the World Series.
Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Pretty decent. The
Padres perpetually have had poor ownership and/or team management, but it looks
like they’ve gotten themselves straightened out. (Coincidentally, their field
managers during most of the last quarter century, Bruce Bochy and Bud Black, have
been highly regarded and reasonably successful.) They’ve got a solid young
nucleus in the field and fleeced the Brewers and Indians to pick up good
starting pitchers in Zach Davies and Mike Clevinger. They may not be on the
same level as the Dodgers and Braves, but they’re not far behind.
Seattle Mariners
Last World Series Win – none (franchise began in 1977)
Record Since 1995 – 1,952-1,994 (.495 winning percentage)
Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Three from 1997 to 2001 under
Lou Piniella (including famously losing the ALCS to the Yankees in 2001 after
setting the all-time record for wins in the regular season with 116), nothing
since then.
Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Not great. They’ve
been in a holding pattern the last few years, trading players furiously while
waiting for their farm system to improve, and I haven’t noticed anything that
makes me think they’re headed in a positive direction. And they’re in a tough
division; it appears the A’s and Astros are far better organized and run than
the Mariners.
Tampa Bay Rays
Last World Series Win – none (franchise began in 1998)
Record Since 1995 – 1,726-1,896 (.477 winning percentage). I’m
going to put in a caveat: the first ten years of the franchise the team’s
winning percentage was .399; since then it’s been .539.
Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Six since 2008, including AL
pennants in 2008 and 2020. They just lost the World Series to the Dodgers.
Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Great. They’re on an
upswing, they’re a very well-run franchise given they aren’t in a great
revenue-generating market (hint: move closer to Orlando), and they’ve got some
solid pitching. No reason they shouldn’t be in contention the next few years.
Texas Rangers
Last World Series Win – none (franchise began in 1961)
Record Since 1995 – 1,991-1,958 (.504 winning percentage)
Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Eight total, including pennants
in 2011 and 2012 (lost to the Cardinals and Giants in the World Series, respectively).
Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – Bad. They’ve been under
.500 four straight seasons, they don’t hit much, and taking a chance on Corey
Kluber in a trade didn’t pan out. It’s embarrassing this franchise has played
for 60 seasons without a World Series title, but I don’t see that changing soon.
(Do keep in mind those eight playoff appearances since 1995 are the only ones
they’ve ever made; they completely whiffed in the 35 years before that.)
Toronto Blue Jays
Last World Series Win – 1993
Record Since 1995 – 1,953-1,994 (.495 winning percentage)
Playoff Appearances Since 1995 – Three, after being out for two
decades. They lost the ALCS in 2015 and 2016, and were shut out in the Wild
Card round this year.
Chances of Winning the World Series Soon – All right. The good
news is they have a solid group of young position players, but the bad news is
their pitching staff isn’t very good. Still, the rebuild they started a few
years ago is already paying dividends, and I don’t see an American League team
that has the talent the Dodgers or Braves do, so why not Toronto?
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